标题: | 低成本航空公司于区域内航空市场范围之研究 The study on regional scope of aviation market for low-cost carriers |
作者: | 萧国浚 Kuo-Chun Hsiao 许巧莺 Chaug-Ing Hsu 运输与物流管理学系 |
关键字: | 低成本航空公司;市场范围;供需互动;Low-cost Carrier;Market Boundary;Demand-supply Interaction |
公开日期: | 2006 |
摘要: | 低成本航空公司之低廉票价、低营运成本和高航机利用率等均较完整服务航空公司具有优势,其兴起亦已改变航空市场结构。低成本航空公司之票价、航线频次与机场选择等决策密切地影响航空公司成本和服务水准,低成本航空公司在进行营运规划时,有必要考虑旅客需求特性对市场之影响藉以分析总体市场范围,并以供需互动角度探讨低成本航空公司之票价、航线频次对航空公司成本与需求量的影响。 本研究应用个体选择模式、解析性方法与数学规划模式,深入考虑需求面特性、低成本航空公司营运特性和机场间的连动关系以及供需互动关系,进行低成本航空公司市场范围总计和票价、航线频次和机场选择之策略规划。本研究首先于需求面,考量票价、机场可及时间、旅行时间、航线频次、个体时间价值等因素,透过解析性方法,构建旅客最适航空公司选择模式;进一步,针对区域内人口集结密度、所得分布等社经特性和旅次目的与长度特性,透过时间价值的分布差异,将个体分析加总至总体,估计低成本航空公司之市场范围和总体需求量。于供给面,分析影响低成本航空公司营运成本重要因素,以解析性方法,构建能反映航线频次、机场选择、机队规划与航程距离之营运成本函数。继而,本研究构建以利润最大化为目标,并能反映供需互动之数学规划模式,求解区域内航空市场中各家航空公司的最适频次、最适机型及最适营运机场下的市场范围分布。 最后,本研究针对台湾地区与东南亚地区之间不同市场背景的低成本航空公司营运航线进行范例与数值演算分析,验证本研究模式之可行性。研究结果显示,低成本航空公司加入范例航空市场营运后,台北-新加坡航线取得14.14%的市场占有率,台北-马尼拉航线则为17.32%。供需互动之规划模式结果亦显示,由于台北至新加坡低成本航空客运量仍有成长空间,可考虑略增每周班次,且透过本研究之规划模式可使低成本航空公司总利润增加。另外亦针对次要机场区位分析其对于航空市场范围变动之影响,结果指出若次要机场区位条件优良,联外运输系统发达,会影响旅客集结效应,则低成本航空公司在该机场的运量会大于区位条件次之的机场。综上所述,低成本航空公司可衡量主要市场航线与旅客特性,决策航线班次,争取有利航权,以获取市场占有率,并透过供需互动规划模式,提高业者之利润。 The advantage of the low-cost carrier over established full-service carriers on the fare, cost savings and high aircraft utilization represents an evolution of the airline industry all over the world. Though passenger intention to travel via low-cost carriers may be increased due to the low fare, the extent depends on socioeconomic characteristics, spatial variations and trip distributions of passenger demand in the regional market, which further influence total demand on low-cost carriers. Moreover, the decisions on fare, flight frequency and airport selection affect the cost and quality of airline services. A profit-maximizing low cost carrier must investigate the impacts of passenger characteristics of regional markets on the demand and trade-off between the cost of providing the service and the revenue generated by the service, when determining the fare, flight frequency and airport. The proposed study attempts to explore above issues by formulating a series of models. This study attempts to apply disaggregate choice model, analytical approach and mathematical programming model to develop models on analyzing low-cost carriers’ decisions, such as fares, flight frequency and airport selection, in response to demand-supply interaction. First, this study formulates a disaggregate choice model to analyze the impacts of passenger socioeconomic characteristics, origin and destination of the trip as well as supply attributes, such as fare, flight frequency, access time to the airport, travel time and simplified frills on the optimal carrier choice. The total low-cost carrier demand is further estimated by aggregating individual passenger’s choice based on the probability distribution, socioeconomic characteristics and trip distribution in the regional market. Second, this study employs the analytical method to formulate carrier’s operating cost function by considering the impacts of economies of scale, passenger demand and landing fee charged by the airport. This study further formulates a mathematical programming model to determine the fare, flight frequencies and airport selection with demand-supply interactions by maximizing carrier’s total profit. A case study is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed model using data available from low-cost carrier operating routes with different market background in Taiwan and Southeast Asia. The results show that Taipei-Singapore route earns 14.14% market share, Taipei-Manila route earns 17.32% market share. Demand-supply interaction model also shows that it’s considerable to add weekly flight frequencies of low-cost carrier in Taipei-Singapore route, and low-cost carrier’s total profit will increase by using the developed model. Secondary airport location analysis for the aviation market share changes indicated that low-cost carrier in a well condition secondary airport location with developed access transport system has higher volume. Finally, a case study about the selected low-cost carrier will be provided to illustrate the results and the application of the developed models. Consequently, the expected results of the developed models not only provide basis on studies regarding passenger demand analysis, but also carrier’s decision-making on marketing, operation strategy in a competitive environment. |
URI: | http://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#GT009432522 http://hdl.handle.net/11536/81595 |
显示于类别: | Thesis |