台灣半導體業海外直接投資之整合模型

Abstract

影響廠商進行海外直接投資 (Foreign Direct Investment；簡稱FDI) 資金外流的因素有很多。其中，母國政策可能是個重要的影響因素但未曾被重視和討論過。本論文建構一個整合的模型，來研究台灣廠商赴中國投資時所考量的整體因素，其主要目的是要回答下面問題：「台灣政府的投資上限政策，是否會影響廠商赴中國投資決策？」藉由淨最小平方法 (Partial Least Squares；簡稱PLS) 和路徑分析模型的建構，我們提出幾個相關假設進行檢定，並輔以1998~2007年台灣IC產業的季資料進行研究。此一模型整合了母國投資上限政策、母國總體環境、地主國總體環境、比較利益因素和廠商特定因素等五方面，涵蓋了影響FDI資金流動的可能因素。根據實證結果顯示，沒有顯著的證據支持母國投資上限政策的有效性。在五個影響台灣IC廠商赴中國投資的因素中，以廠商特定因素的影響最大，其次是地主國的總體環境因素。以往的文獻大多著重地主國觀點來討論FDI，本論文提供的整合性觀點，可提供政府相關單位和業者作為參考。

The determinants affecting outward foreign direct investment (FDI) are varied. The crucial role of the parent country’s policy has been less well considered but is likely to be an important determinant. In this dissertation, we develop an integrated model to study the determinant of Taiwan’s industry on investment in China. The main purpose of the dissertation is to answer the question, “Has the Taiwanese government’s upper limit on investments interfered with Taiwanese firms’ decisions about whether to make FDI in China?” Hypotheses regarding the effects of the Taiwanese government’s FDI policy on firms’ investment decisions are then developed and tested, by using partial least squares (PLS) path method. Using industry data from the Taiwanese high-tech industry for the years 1998 to 2007, the effectiveness of Taiwan’s upper limit regulations on outward FDI into China is investigated. The dissertation reflects an integrated perspective on the FDI literature by including the host country, the parent country, and firm-specific factors as determinants of FDI. According to the empirical result, we found no significant evidence supporting the effectiveness of the upper limit. The most influential of the model’s five determinants of Taiwan’s FDI in China are factors specific to individual firms. The second most influential is the macroeconomic environment of the host country. Previous studies have paid little attention to the parent country when analyzing FDI, a deficiency we remedied in the present study.