兩岸海運直航貨櫃港口選擇之研究

Abstract

兩岸海運直航於2008年12月15日開始實施，大陸方面共計開放63個港口，面對眾多大陸直航港口，如何選擇重要之航點增闢航線或增加航班，以有效發揮直航效益，為一重要課題，因此本研究以模糊層級分析及模糊綜合評判等方法，評估大陸直航港口開闢與臺灣港口間貨櫃定期航線，或增加航班之優先順序。由於大陸所開放之直航港口眾多且條件差異甚大，為期合理評估，本研究建立一篩選機制選出其中15個直航港口為候選港口，並將其區分為主要貨櫃港口及潛在發展港口兩類，據以研擬相對應之評估架構。 為使評估架構符合實務上之考量，本研究先以文獻回顧方式研擬出初步之評估架構，再藉由專家訪談及專家問卷調查進一步加以修正。其後再以國籍貨櫃航商，以及於國內設有營運駐點之外籍貨櫃航商為對象，進行各準則權重之評估。經評估結果，在大陸主要貨櫃港口評估準則之權重部分，各構面之重要性依序為「地理區位與貨源」、「港口作業效率及成本」、「開闢至高雄港或台北港中轉航線之潛力」，及「港口設施條件」。此一結果顯示航運業者於評估增闢大陸主要貨櫃港口航線或增加其航班時，仍以貨源及地理區位為首要考量，且不僅考慮現有貨櫃量，更將「腹地產業之發展性」列為最重要評估因素。潛在發展港口各評估準則之相對權重亦有類似之結果，惟對港口設施條件相對較為重視。 在大陸主要貨櫃港口增闢至高雄港或台北港航線，或增加航班之優先順序方面，由於部分港口之整體非模糊績效值頗為接近，經以t檢定方法進一步予以分群結果顯示，上海港與深圳港可歸屬為第一優先港口，寧波舟山港、青島港、天津港、廣州港歸屬為第二優先港口，廈門港為第三優先港口，大連港為第四優先港口，此一排序顯示貨源確為航商開闢航線之主要考量。至於大陸潛在發展港口增闢兩岸航線，或增加航班之優先順序則分別為，連雲港與蘇州港為第一優先港口，營口港與南京港為第二優先港口，煙台港與福州港為第三優先港口，虎門港為第四優先港口。本研究之評估結果可作為航運業者規劃調整兩岸航線之參考。

Cross-strait direct shipping has been initiated on December 15th, 2008,for which China has opened 63 ports .To effectively enhance the benefit of cross-strait direct shipping, how to properly select the important ports to develop shipping lines is an important topic. Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process（FAHP）and Fuzzy Synthetic Decision are utilized to rank the priority of the opened China ports for cross-strait direct shipping in this study. There are fifteen candidate ports being selected through a screen procrdure. Owing to the differences in many conditions between these ports, this study classifies the candidate ports into major and potential two categories. The multiple criteria evaluation hierarchy systems for each categories are developed respectively. In order to match practical considerations, the multiple criteria hierarchy systems are developed via literature review, experts interview, and questionnaire survey. The results of the FAHP analysis revealed that the weight ranking of the objectives of the major container ports are in the order of “geographical location”, “cargo-source”, ”port efficiency and cost”, ”potential of transfer to Kaohsiung port or Taipei Port” and “port infrastructures”. The weight ranking of the objectives of the potential developing ports are similar, but the “port infrastructures” is considered more important than the major container ports’. It means the cargo-source is the most important factor for carrier to select container ports for direct shipping. According to the results of this study, the ranking of the major container ports of China is that the first priority includes the port of Shanghai and Shenzhen, the second priority includes the port of Ningbo, Qingdao, Tianjin and Guangzhou, the third priority is the port of Xiaman, and the port of Dalian is the fourth priority. The ranking of the potential developing ports is that the first priority includes the port of Lianyungang and Suzhou, the second priority includes the port of Yingkou and Nanjing, the third priority is the port of Yantai and Fuzhou, and the port of Humen is the fourth priority. The evaluation results could be provided as useful information for carriers to plan and/or adjust the routes of cross-strait direct shipping.