價格促銷在私有品牌和國際品牌上的長期效果

Abstract

本論文為了解各個品牌在銷售和促銷運用上的長期互動情形，使用時間序列分析的VAR模型，分析芝加哥大學的Dominick's Finer Food Database，並選擇衛生紙品類內的13個國際品牌產品和1個私有品牌產品做分析。 依照產品銷售量和平均折扣率的長期穩定性，這些產品最後被分成四群。維持穩定銷售量和平均折扣率的產品，表示是處於金牛或利基市場，長期來說，並不會受到小型競爭者的影響；大部份前5名的產品都同樣擁有不受影響的穩定銷售量，但卻有不穩定的平均折扣率，暗示了這些產品很可能是主導市場上價格促銷程度的品牌，和其領導地位相符；擁有不穩定銷售量和穩定平均折扣率的產品，則表示其銷售量會受其它競爭者的影響；銷售量和平均折扣率都不穩定的產品，推測是剛上市的新產品，無法馬上鞏固銷售量，也無法訂定適當的折扣率，在此篇論文中，並沒有產品屬於這塊區域，故顯示這段時間沒有新產品。 我們的結果同時也發現，私有品牌的促銷活動的確會跟隨著市場領導品牌，此為其重要的定位策略之一。私有品牌的促銷甚至可能干擾市場的長期均衡，並且對其它國際品牌的銷售量會有負向影響，特別的是，愈大的國際品牌受到的影響也愈劇烈。

In order to demonstrate the long-term interaction between brands, we apply the time series model, VAR, to analyze the Chicago Dominick's Finer Food Database. We chose 13 national brand products and 1 store brand product in bath tissue category. The result divides these products into four groups, according to the stability of their sales and average price discounts in the long run. Products which have stationary sales and average price discounts are cash cows or market niches which won’t be influenced by small competitors in the long run. Most of the top 5 products have stationary sales but unstable average price discounts, and it implies that they are probably the potential triggers for the price promotions in the market. Products which have unstable sales but stable average price discounts are small brands, and it means that the brand sales is fluctuated by other competitors. Finally, products which have unstable sales and average price discounts are probably new products. They can’t control their sales and lack of information to decide the proper discounts. In this research, there is no new products. My result also indicates store brand’s price promotion activities always follow the market leader. Moreover, the store brand’s promotion might interfere the long term market equilibrium and negatively influence the sales of the other brands. The bigger the national brand is, the greater the impact is.