TFT-LCD投資決策分析- 次世代別選擇之決策應用

Abstract

傳統上，企業面對重大投資案，往往因為機密性、決策者風格與組織文化的異同，而有不同的方式與流程進行評估，對於未來高度不確定性的預測結果反而存疑，造成決策者常常以經驗與直覺判斷進行決策，因此可用來改善此決策問題的系統化方法與工具，就顯得格外重要。本研究以TFT-LCD產業於面臨重大投資決策為案例，透過SDG (Strategic Decision Group) 公司所發展的決策流程與工具，提供決策促進者 (Decision Facilitator) 以決策品質六要素，對應目前決策作為所發現的問題點，以溝通流程為基礎，讓決策團隊與專案團隊，經由對話決策過程與決策分析流程之決策分析模型，推動投資決策分析，並運用策略表產生可行方案與關聯圖確認影響決策目標的不確定性變數，再配合分析軟體，以敏感度分析得知關鍵不確定變數，將關鍵因子於決策樹計算出各方案期望值，再透過累積機率圖，求出風險區間，提供數據與圖形化資料，藉此展開更進一步分析。結果顯示以系統化與符合邏輯的群體決策，可改變個人或少數人缺乏整合性思考與憑藉經驗直覺之決策偏誤，提昇決策促進者改善決策品質的能力，提供決策者可供決策參考依據，選擇符合企業最適方案，創造企業永續經營的契機，為個人與企業於進行決策分析之可行作法。

Enterprises traditionally use different methods and processes for evaluating major investments, and such methods and processes depend on confidentiality, decision-maker style and organizational culture; since decision makers usually have doubts regarding highly uncertain forecasting results, most decisions are made based on decision-maker experience and instinct. Therefore, systematic methods and tools for improving such decision-making problem become extremely important. This study takes decision-making regarding major investments in the TFT-LCD industry as an example. The decision-making processes and tools developed by the Strategic Decision Group (SDG) are used as the six major elements for decision-making quality for a decision facilitator. Problems in current decision-making processes are used, based on communication process, by a decision board and project team for analyzing investment decisions using a decision-making analytical model comprising a dialog decision process and decision analysis process. A strategy table is used to generate a feasible project and influence diagram to identify uncertain variables that may affect the decision-making goals. Then, using analysis software, sensitivity analysis is applied to identify key uncertain variables. These variables are then used in a decision tree to calculate the expected values of each project .Via a cumulative probability plot, the risk zone is then derived, and regular and graphic data are used for further analysis. Analytical results demonstrated that systematic and logical group decisions can alter decision bias due to a lack of integrated thinking and a strong dependence on experience and intuition. Furthermore, can improve decision-making quality and provide reference data for decision makers. Finally, a decision-maker can select optimal projects that create opportunities for sustaining business operations. Therefore, it is a very feasible technique for decision-making analysis used by individuals and enterprises.