台灣DRAM及NAND快閃記憶體發展趨勢與機會研究

Abstract

歷經二十多年的演進，全球DRAM產業已形成寡佔的結構(98.4%)，依市佔率分別為三星(韓)、奇夢達(德)、海力士(韓)、爾必達(日)與美光(美)等五大陣營。台灣的廠商透過跨國策略聯盟的方式，與世界DRAM五大集團結合，如南亞科與奇夢達合資成立華亞科，茂德與海力士策略聯盟，力晶與爾必達合資成立瑞晶。 1980年代6吋晶圓廠世代日本取代美國成為產業霸主及1990年代8吋晶圓廠世代南韓取代日本成為產業霸主是著名的例子。在8吋晶圓廠和12吋晶圓廠交替之際，台灣DRAM製造商是否能在12晶圓廠世代取代南韓成為產業霸主? 然而投資一座12吋晶圓廠需約30億美金，是8吋晶圓廠的3倍，如此龐大的投資金額，是一個進入及退出障礙都高的產業，具有高度策略風險的產業。另外面對NAND快閃記憶體產業的興起與激烈的競爭，台灣DRAM製造商是否有機會循進入DRAM模式轉戰NAND快閃記憶體市場? 值得我們研究探討。 本研究透過資料收集與分析，以產業分析架構來了解DRAM及NAND快閃記憶體產業現況及趨勢，並以五力分析、SWOT分析及BCG矩陣等策略理論將資料作歸納與整理，最後以專家訪談方式來加強或修正次級資料所得到之結論。期望能找出台灣在產業中扮演的角色，最後提出建議供廠商發展策略之參考。

關鍵字: DRAM、NAND快閃記憶體、策略

After evolving for almost 20 years, the global DRAM industry has become an oligopoly. The top five leaders in the world are Samsung (Korea)、Qimonda (Germany)、Hynix (Korea)、Elpida (Japan) and Micron (America). The DRAM manufacturers in Taiwan chose to form strategic alliance with the Top Five. For instance: Nanya and Infineon have started a joint venture company which is called Inotera, ProMos and Hynix have signed strategic alliance, Powerchip and Elpida have started a joint venture called Rexchip. In 1980s, Japan’s DRAM makers surpassed American manufacturers such as Intel and became the world's largest DRAM supplier with 6-inch wafer technology. In 1990s, South Korea’s DRAM makers replaced Japanese manufacturers and became the world's largest DRAM supplier with 8-inch wafer technology. As the 8 inch fabs going to be superseded by the 12 inch fabs in 2000s, what should be the strategies of Taiwanese DRAM makers? Note that a 12 inch fab. Requires investment of over 3 billion U.S. dollars, which is triple that of an 8 inch fab. No doubt that DRAM industry has high entry and exit barriers. In the other hand, the NAND flash memory has became a serious substituting technology to DRAM. The purpose of this thesis was to gather critical information in assisting Taiwanese DRAM makers making strategic business decisions. The analysis was based on industry analysis models such as Michael Porter’s Five Forces model、the SWOT analysis model and the BCG Matrix model to analyze the pros and cons of Taiwan’s DRAM and NAND flash memory makers.

Key Words : DRAM、NAND flash memory、Strategy