道路交通事故之能源消耗與碳排放量推估研究

Abstract

道路交通事故成本推估是交通安全相關研究之重要研究課題，更是政府相關施政的重要參考資訊。雖然已有相當多研究嘗試推估事故之直接成本（人員死傷及財物損失），但道路交通事故不僅對肇事雙方造成直接損失，也同時其他用路人帶來負面衝擊。因此，進一步納入事故所衍生的外部成本實有必要，俾能正確推估道路交通事故之社會成本，以作為道路交通安全改善計畫之效益分析基礎。 而道路交通事故之外部成本主要係因事故發生時，所導致之道路服務容量降低，而產生之車流延滯，進而衍生額外的能源消耗與污染排放（包括CO2、CO、HC…等）。因此，為正確推估此一外部成本，本計畫將研提一個系統性的分析架構，用以整合多個子模式，包括事故頻次與嚴重度模式、事故衝擊模式、車流延滯推估模式、車流能耗與排污模式，以及空氣污染願付價格模式。此外，本研究將透過資料蒐集、文獻彙析、問卷調查及模式推估等，嘗試將各個子模式本土化，俾能推估及分析在不同交通環境下，發生不同類型事故所可能產生之外部成本。

To correctly estimate the social cost of road traffic accidents is not only one of key issues of traffic safety studies, but also one of important information for related policy decision makings. Numberous studies have been conducted to estimate the internal cost of accidents, including the life cost, medical cost, and property damage cost. However, in addition to the social cost of parties directly involved in an accident, upsteaming traffic may also be negatively impacted. To compelely and correctly assess the total social cost of an accident, to simulateously consider both internal cost and external cost is essential. The external cost of an accident is mainly induced by the traffic delay due to the capacity reduction (lane blocked) caused by accidents and the delay will further result into additional energy consumption and emissions (CO2, CO, HC,…). In order to accurately estimate the external cost of an accident, this study aims to propose an systematical framework which integrates several sub-models, including crash severity and frequency model, accident impact model, traffic delay model, energy consumption and emissions model, and willingness-to-pay model for emissions. This study also attempts to localize these models through data collection, literature review and questionnaire survey, and model estimation so as to estimate the external cost of various types of accident under various traffic flow, traffic control and road geometric conditions.