标题: | 公路路网之脆弱度、回复力及减轻对策之资源配置 Vulnerability, Resilience and Resource Allocation of Mitigation Measures for Highway Network |
作者: | 冯正民 FENG CHENG-MIN 国立交通大学交通运输研究所 |
公开日期: | 2012 |
摘要: | 社会进步与人口成长使运输路网日愈繁杂,社经活动更有赖运输系统連结,路网中断将导致用路人旅行成本与旅行时间增加,甚至被迫取消旅次,造成直接灾损与间接社会经济损失甚钜。造成路网失效的主要原因可概分为自然危害与人为灾害,尤其在全球气候变迁影响下,自然危害致灾的机率因强度与延时之提升而大幅增加,因此,运输路网系统因应灾害之能力成为都会地区发展之关键课题。 虽然过去文献不乏脆弱度相关研究,然多基于都市防灾观念及工程导向以界定脆弱度,鲜少针对路网脆弱度与回復力之定义、影响因子与相关冲击进行探讨。故本研究以系统工程方法解构脆弱度与回復力之功能与内涵,据以建立路网脆弱度与回復力模式,并利用系统动态模型协助决策者了解都会区公路路网系统行为,以界定脆弱度与回復力之关键影响因子。本研究以台北地区之地震及水灾为例,引入模糊集合概念反映外部环境之不确定性,建构防灾与復原阶段资源配置模式,以敏感度与情境分析說明改善公路路网脆弱度与回復力之相关政策意涵,最终依据分析结果研拟相关策略方案建议,以提供公部门进行资源配置与运输系统风险评估之參考。 Transportation networks have become more complicated because of social progress and population growth. Numerous socio-economic activities are linked to transportation networks and systems. The network failure will increase the travel time and travel cost of users and even force users to cancel their trips. The network failure results in considerable direct damage as well as indirect socio-economic losses. The main reasons causing network failure include natural hazard and man-made hazard. Particularly along with the global climate change, the probabilities of natural disasters increase remarkably because of the incremental magnitude and duration. The coping capacities of transportation network thus become a critical issue in metropolitan area development. Previous literature discussed the determination of vulnerable infrastructures based on the concepts of engineering-oriented urban disaster prevention. However, the definitions, influencing factors and causalities of vulnerability and resilience are absent. The system engineering method is employed to deconstruct the functions and components and to integrate a network and resilience model. Moreover, a systematic simulation approach is utilized to assist decision-makers in understanding the system behavior of urban highway network and identifying the crucial influence factors of network vulnerability and resilience. The Taipei metropolitan area is applied as an empirical study under the threat from earthquake and flood. Fuzzy set is introduced to reflect the uncertainty about external environment and to construct resource allocation models in stages of disaster prevention and recovery, respectively. Sensitivity and scenario analyses are used to explore the policy implications for the improvement of network vulnerability and resilience. Consequently, the suggested strategies are provided for resource allocation and risk assessment of transportation network according to the analytical results. |
官方说明文件#: | NSC99-2410-H009-062-MY3 |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/11536/96470 https://www.grb.gov.tw/search/planDetail?id=2377021&docId=376386 |
显示于类别: | Research Plans |
文件中的档案:
If it is a zip file, please download the file and unzip it, then open index.html in a browser to view the full text content.