考慮網路可靠性之貨物複合運輸網路設計問題

Abstract

台灣是以出口導向為主的國家，固有效率的貨物運輸是十分重要的。貨櫃貨運的相關 研究多以港口成本、營運、政策面等為主題，少有陸海空複合運輸的整體研究分析。 發展複合運輸系統一般被認為是較經濟和可持續的貨運策略，而要分析相關政策的績 效及預期結果，必須發展一套複合運輸的運輸網路系統模型，並能仔細估算貨物在網 路中的移動分佈。 本研究提出三個工作項目以分析上述問題：（一）發展一套隨機性的貨物複合運輸模 型，並考慮路網當中的可靠度和不確定性，（二）探討貨運承攬業者在做決策（如選擇 路線和港口）時在成本和可靠度的考量，（三）建立一套雙層隨機性的複合運輸路網的 網絡設計問題，並考慮經濟效益和可行性以及環境的可持續性現在限制。 所建立之模型預期能幫助探討和設計一套適合的運輸政策組合，以及替代方案的成本 效益。本研究並以台灣為案例分析，建構可提升整體績效和貨運競爭力的政策建議。 本計劃為正在進行的國科會一年期計劃的延伸（考慮網路可靠性之可持續貨物複合運 輸網路模型之研究，Project no. NSC 100-2221-E-009 -125），原計劃書預計需要兩年時 間完成。目前已經有具體的成果，已發表於研討會論文集，現在準備投稿期刊當中。 本計劃書主要為後續第二年的工作，並針對網絡可靠度的相關文獻回顧和模式的研擬 方式有大幅度的修改及詳細的說明。

Taiwan is an export-based economy, and the important of freight transportation is of no question. Most of the previous studies of freight have focused on the cost factors, operation conditions and policy issues related to the ports. There is a lack of investigation on the intermodal level for freight transport comprising marine, air, and highway transport. Intermodal transportation has been demonstrated to be an (more) economic and sustainable strategy for freight transport. To explore the relevant policy options, a multimodal transportation network system for the logistic chain and a detailed estimation of the cargoes movement pattern on the multimodal network are required. This research aims to tackle these important issues by proposing to: (i) develop an advanced stochastic freight network model with multimodal transportation system considering network reliability and uncertainty, (ii) investigate the decisions (e.g. route selections and port choices) of freight forwarders, who optimize for the cost and uncertainty, and (iii) formulate an integrated bi-level programming problem for stochastic transport network design, taking into account the economic feasibility and environmental sustainability. The model will help investigating and designing an appropriate transport policy package for freight, such as pricing and investment. Economic analysis of different sustainable transport policy options and the associated costs with the respective alternatives are expected findings of the project. The conclusions will help the Taiwan area to become more sustainable while at the same time improving the overall efficiency and competitiveness. This study is an extension of a previous NSC research (Towards a sustainable multimodal freight transportation system with network reliability; Project no. NSC 100-2221-E-009 -125) which was a two-year proposal and has been granted for one year. The progress is on-going, and initial findings have already been presented and published in conference proceedings, and the manuscript is being revised for journal submission. The current proposal focuses on incorporating the effect of network reliability in the modeling of the multimodal freight network system.