流域水情模擬與預報模式精度與效能提升之研究-總計畫暨子計畫:流域水情模擬與預報模式精度與效能提升之研究(II)

Abstract

由於台灣地理位置特殊性，每年遭受颱洪災害頻繁。如 2008 年卡玫基、鳳凰、辛 樂克與薔蜜、2009 年莫拉克、2010 年凡那比及梅姬等颱風。此等洪水災害除導致嚴重 之經濟損失及造成台灣民眾生命安全威脅。然而水患之治理實為相當複雜之分工過程， 事權跨越中央及地方各級政府主管機關，各區段所衍生的課題互相關聯影響，如何有效 整合政府業務功能、建置跨部會溝通平台，實為困難。本整合型計畫依據100 年度國科 會自然處永續學門「防災科技研究計畫課題重點說明」跨領域整合課題要旨，洪旱災害 領域「3-4 改進水文水理模式預測精度與提昇模式演算效能」之研究課題，結合水文、 水理、系統、勘災調查及防災應變等領域專長之學者專家，目標為建立流域整合型治理 模擬與預報模式，包含降雨-逕流模式、水庫排洪操作模式、全流域河道水位與暴潮模 式、河道局部水理與動床沖淤、淹水模擬等模式，銜接中央氣象局系集颱風定量降雨預 報及各部會署之即時監測資料。利用模式計算及掌握流域之逕流量、水庫排洪量、洪水 位、全流域河道水位、暴潮、溢堤處流量、淹水區域及局部河道水理及動床沖淤狀況， 於平時進行減災方案研擬及颱風期間應變時的災害境況模擬預警，以達成完善的流域治 理目標。

Typhoons have frequently caused severe floods in Taiwan, for example, Kalmaegi Typhoon, Fung-Wong Typhoon, Sinlaku Typhoon and Jangmi Typhoon in 2008, Morakot Typhoon in 2009, Fanapi Typhoon and Megi Typhoon in 2010. Flood disasters not only cause severe economic losses but also jeopardize residents＇ safety. However, flood management is complex and interactive division processes, which include central and local governments＇ management. Effectively integrating both governments＇ work and constructing integrative platform for communication is difficult. This integrated research program based on the goal of inter-discipline research of National Science Council Sustainable Development Research Committee concentrates on the topic of improving the accuracy and efficiency of flood scenario simulation and forecasting models for river basin. An expert panel including hydrological, hydraulic, systematic, disaster survey and disaster management experts, focus on developing an integrated river basin scenario simulation and flood forecasting models. Integrated model includes rainfall-runoff model, reservoir operation model, stochastic model, global river basin water level and storm surge model, local river hydraulics and migration model and inundation model. Using integrated model with Central Weather Bureau typhoon data and governments＇ real-time monitoring data to simulate river discharges, reservoir outflows, whole river basin water levels, sea levels, bank overflow, inundating area and both global and local hydraulic and river migration status. Integrated model can provide overall planning of river basin management for making flood disaster reduction program during ordinary days and simulating real-time circumstances for preventing flood disasters during typhoon period.