強化中部水資源分區因應氣候變遷水資源管理調適能力研究

Abstract

近年來，受到全球氣候變遷影響，極端降雨造成洪水及乾旱發生頻率增加，區域水資源調配面臨極大挑戰，故如何透過水資源系統的風險評估掌握各區水資源供應風險是水資源調配一個重要課題。
本計畫透過簡易降尺度分析，探討不同情境下之雨量與溫度變動趨勢，並以GWLF降雨逕流模式評估氣候變遷下河川流量特性與變化趨勢，以作為水源調配分析之基礎。根據水源調配分析結果與社會經濟資料，進行各標的用水之災害脆弱分析(脆弱度)與各供水分區缺水潛勢分析(危害度)，並參考各標的用水的缺水忍受度與台灣地區社會經濟統計資料，進行脆弱度、危害度及災害風險分級量化，以繪製各供水分區缺水風險地圖。風險地圖分析成果可作為擬定各區域因應氣候變遷之水資源強化調適策略之參考，以期降低災害帶予人們的生命財產損失及各產業損失。


Recently, owing to global climate change, extreme storm and drought happen frequently. The regional water distribution suffers a challenge. Therefore, how to control the water supply risk through risk analysis is an important issue. This study evaluates future rainfall and temperature in different scenario by simple downscaling. Next GWLF model is implemented to estimate climate change impact analysis on river discharge. The result is the basis for water distribution analysis. The hazard and vulnerability is estimated based on water shortage and social economic. The degree of hazard and vulnerability is set by water shortage tolerance and social economic statistical data. The water shortage risk map is draw by hazard and vulnerability degree. The result can be the reference of adaptation strategies implement.