全球氣候變遷趨勢下因應巨災型洪災對策之研究(2/2)

Abstract

近年來在全球氣候變遷效應影響下，巨災型洪災肆虐全球，台灣亦不能倖免於外，72 水災與卡玫基颱風等殷鑑尚且不遠，八八風災重創南台灣之傷痛更非時間所能輕易沖淡。我國面臨如此重大之威脅，亦需擬定妥適之對策以為因應。關於巨災之定義，目前學界並未有確切之操作型定義，且亦難以依災損金額或災害規模予以量化，一般係將其認為發生機率極低，但災情將難以預期並令受災者損失慘重之災害，惟以水利工程學之觀點，洪災災情若至巨大而難以預期之境地，其規模必然已經超越保護標準，因此本計畫初步將巨災型洪災概念性地定義為超越保護標準之洪災，且具備以下特性：(1)大規模的毀壞性災害、難以人力合理避災；(2)可能造成人命損失；(3)發生機率雖小，仍不排除發生之可能；以及(4)發生後難僅依民間力量復舊，需 仰賴政府補助長期攤平等。本計畫之主要目的係在探討當氣候變遷效應持續威脅，大規模淹水災情已難完全避免時，政府應備有之策略，以協助受災人民減輕洪災損失，並於災後取得經濟支持以使生活恢復常軌。 本計畫係結合經濟面、技術面與制度面之兩年期研究計畫，而著重之研究範疇係以與非工程防洪措施相關之對策為主，首先由制度面觀點，彙整其他先進國家現行策略，研擬適用於台灣之因應對策，接著再以技術面與經濟面之角度，探索研擬對策於本計畫選定流域颱洪事件(高屏溪流域莫拉克風災)對減輕洪災之成效，最後提出因應巨災型洪災所應進行之法制改造方針。 以制度面角度觀察，先進國家面臨巨災型洪災威脅時，所採取之制度化策略，多半出於以減少災害損失為目的之洪氾管理制度，與以提供災後經濟支持為目的之洪災保險制度。由於減少災害損失有助於洪災保險之永續經營，以上兩種制度設計上多有相互整合之情形；但根據相關經驗，此兩種制度於若干先進國家中並無法同時實現，因此，本計畫特別將此兩種制度分開，於第一年單獨探討以實現洪氾管理制度為中心所提出之因應對策及其於選定流域之應用成效，於第二年再行討論以實現洪災保險制度為中心而提出之因應對策。

Catastrophic floods become a worldwide trend in the climate change era, and Taiwan can never be excluded from the global village. In the wakes of Typhoon Mindulle (2004) and Typhoon Kalmaegi (2005), the fear of catastrophic floods had not yet eased and then Typhoon Morakot battered and shattered southern Taiwan in Aug 2009. To cope with such a potential of devastatingfloods, strategies on the consequences of catastrophic floods have to be well discussed and prepared. This research project is aiming at the tendency of unavoidable and disastrous floods and trying to find appropriate counteractions in order to help mitigate and restore the devastated regions in Taiwan.In this 2-year project incorporated with economic, technical and legislative issues, strategies concentrating on nonstructural measures and related international and domestic regimes in several developed countries like EU, US, UK, or France will be collected and analyzed for further discussion. Consequently, strategies that can be adopted by our country Republic of China, Taiwan will be drafted based on the above analyses. And then these strategies will be applied to Gaoping River basin devastated by Typhoon Morakot and analyzed due to economic and technical concerns. The project will also provide suggestion on legal reforms for coping with catastrophic floods in Taiwan.Based on the observation of legal regimes in several developed countries, enforcing floodplain management with legislative approaches has been an important measure to improve existed flood insurance regimes since mitigation on flood damage can definitely lessen financial burdens for those flood insurance regimes. But sometimes establishing flood insurance regime has been impossible for some developed countries so regimes concerning floodplain management would be promulgated. This project has learned the above experiences and focuses on regimes and approaches related floodplain management in the first year, and consequently discuss measures and legal issues aiming at the establishment of flood insurance regimes.