危機變數對地方政府策略管理之影響(II)

Abstract

近年來，危機管理已成為組織中相當重要的探討課題，而組織內、外環境在各種綜 效(synergy)之下，也對組織的策略規劃產生重大影響。在第一年計畫的期中報告中，本 研究初步訪談四個縣市政府後的發現有助於深化及再概念化文獻上整理出的四個致災 因子，分別是：風險意識、不確定性、易致災性及組織能力。而本研究第二年的計畫， 主要將檢視上述四個構面與「策略過程」中的參與程度，以及「策略內容」中的前瞻程 度之間的關係。 本研究第二年主要採用問卷調查的方法，在「組織」的分析單位下，母體界定為各 地方政府之一級機關/單位。根據銓敘部之資料，目前各地方政府共有633 個一級機關/ 單位，本研究將透過系統抽樣抽取250 個樣本進行調查，問卷發放對象則以選取出來的 各機關/單位中八職等以上公務員為主。關於第一年計畫執行後發現的新問題，以及量化 資料分析所呈現有趣的議題，本研究也將從各地方政府中選取十位受訪者進行深度訪談 以尋求答案。 在二年的計畫執行完畢之後，本研究期望對地方政府的策略規劃建構適當的風險管 理機制。此外，本研究第一年的初步研究成果已獲得美國公共行政學會（ASPA）在2010 年年會發表之機會，後續也將努力於把兩年期計畫的所有成果發表於TSSCI與SSCI之 期刊上。

“Plans can never keep up with changes” seems pervasive in public organization; however, it has also revealed the two major questions. First, what kind of changes can really affected plans? The subsequent question is how do those changes influence on plans, especially the process and contents of strategic plans? Literature has explored on the organizations environment for couple decades, nevertheless, what are the risk factors of the environment were still scanted. Therefore, the two-year project would like to define the risk factors which influenced on the strategic planning of local government in the first year. In the mid-term report of the first year project, those factors can be defined as awareness of risks, environmental uncertainty, vulnerability and organizational capacity through the literature review and preliminary in-depth interviews in four local governments of Taiwan. In the second-year of this project, a survey will be conducted to test the relations between the risk factors and strategic planning of local government. According to the literature review and preliminary finding of the first year project, hypotheses have been described. While the analytical unit is “organization” of this research, the population is estimated about 633 which refer to the first level agencies of local government. 250 samples will be defined by means of systematic sampling. The questionnaires will be sent to these 250 agencies and all the 8 grades and above public servants will be asked to fill the questionnaire out. On the other hand, in order to re-check our finding of first-year study and answer the new questions which may be derived from statistical analysis, another 10 in-depth interviews will be conducted in the final stage of this two-year project. Finally, while the preliminary finding of the first year research has been accepted in the annual conference of American Society for Public Administration (ASPA), April, 2010, this research will continue on publishing the findings and results to TSSCI SSCI journals.