考量農業用水之水資源經理方案決策分析

Abstract

本計畫以石門水庫供水區域為研究區域，目前既有之北區水資源經理方案多在解決長期供水問題，然在全球氣候變遷影響下，短期極端缺水事件發生越來越頻繁，且隨著生活品質的提升及高科技產業的發展，對於用水的要求越來越嚴峻，短期缺水可能引發民怨或造成的經濟損失已不可忽視，因此有必要研擬短期應變方案以降低衝擊，故本計畫期能建立一可考量長期、短期及農業調度策略之整合性水資源經理決策模式，並建議可因應未來供水風險管理之最佳投資組合方案，以供決策之參考。將完成：

一、水資源調配模式(GWSM)建立。
二、石門供水區水源調配分析。 
三、求償性序率規劃決策模式(SPRDM)建立。 
四、最佳組合方案建議。

Shimen Reservoir is our study area. The current master plans for Northern Taiwan always focus on long-term strategies. Due to industry development, living quality enhancement and global climate change, the water requirement is more severe. The financial loss and popular grumble caused by short-term shortage can’t be ignored. The short-term strategies must be considered. However, long-term and short-term combination makes the analysis more complex and difficult. The study proposes a decision model based on stochastic programming with recourse (SPRDM) to solving this puzzle. The suggestion combination can be the reference for decision making. We will finish as follow:
1.Establish GWSM.
2.Analyze Shimen water supply area’s water source.
3.Establish SPRDM.
4.Optimal combination plan’s recommendation.