應用多重選擇權決策模式於臺北港BOT計畫

Abstract

基於BOT公共建設計畫之財務效益的大小對民間公司或投資者非常具有影響性，因此，有效評估計畫價值之重要性是不可或缺的。然而，由於BOT公共建設計畫具有眾多不確定性因素、特許期長，高風險等等特性，故政府可利用提供合作的民間業者適當的保證及執行彈性等等協議來吸引其前來加入投資BOT計畫，以冀能引進民間的資金及營運效率。一反傳統僅以財務投資指標來進行評估，如淨現值(Net present value,NPV)、回收期(Pay-Back period)、內部報酬率法(internal rate of return on equity,IRR)等靜態分析方法評價，本研究參考由財務方法衍伸出的實質選擇權方法作為評價基礎，此一方法另外併考慮彈性決策所具有的價值，為一擴展淨現值觀念的分析方法。此外，相對於現今較為普遍的探討放棄投資計畫的單一實質選擇權分析方法，考量到計畫內容可以給予投資者較多的空間來執行決策，而不是單一執行「放棄選擇權」，故本研究採用探討多種決策彈性價值的多重實質選擇權分析方法。藉此，希冀能更有效評估BOT計畫價值。 在一具有彈性策略的BOT計畫中，常用的彈性決策除了中止計畫的投資外，還包含延遲興建、擴大規模、縮減規模等等策略。由於本研究主體為台北港貨櫃儲運中心的BOT計畫，在興建期屬於分批投資興建的特殊設計下，因此特許期間中具有興建期與營運期重疊時點的部分，故本研究會先建立流程來推估特許公司在該期期間執行決策時，其交互作用對於各時點下之計畫價值、執行價格會如何影響，接著，再應用多重實質選擇權分析方法於本計畫的價值評估。 最後，參考Black-Scholes公式及沈勁利論文的選擇權評價方法，得出以下結論: (1)在本研究設計的5個情境下，即使是預測未來貨櫃運量成長最樂觀的情境一，在特許期滿時(2053年)，其多重彈性決策為計畫所帶來的價值仍為負值，有鑑於此，站在台北港企業聯盟的立場，為了使虧損得以降低並獲得此BOT計畫應有的合理利潤(報酬率15%)，可另尋合理途徑與政府協商。 (2)從臺北港貨櫃碼頭經營不如預期的現況來看，建議能積極給予航商相關優惠機制、轉運大陸之進出口貨、效法香港或新加坡之港口服務、興建多用途碼頭的方向發展等等，以降低景氣對運量的影響力程度。

It is imposing that the financial profit of public infrastructure project will affect the willingness of private investors to participate in. Therefore, the importance of evaluating the value of project effectively is indispensable. As we know, BOT projects contain lots of characteristics, such as a variety of uncertainties, long concession period, high risks. Government can attract the private to invest BOT projects by providing them proper guarantees and rights of exerting strategies elastically. In this way, the project can be carried out more efficiently. Instead of utilizing the traditional financial tools to evaluate the project value, like NPV, Pay-Back period, IRR methods, my study adopts the ROA(Real Options Analysis) method, which not only considers the NPV, but also the value elastic decisions. Therefore, it is more like an expanded NPV. However, given that investors may have more than one option (option of abandonment investing) to apply to the project, my study chooses applying multiple real options analysis to my research. In this way, I hope the value of BOT project can be assessed more effectively. The real options often used in BOT projects are Option of Delay on construction and operation, Option of Expansion, Option of Contraction, and so on. Because there are overlapped period existing in the BOT project of Taipei Port, I will properly compute the value of interactions by establishing a procedure first, and then move the fitting exercise price and stike price into model to observe the influence of interaction. Then, I will apply multiple options decision model one the BOT Project of Taipei Port to valuate effectively. At last, after using the Black-Scholes model and Shen‘s mathematical formulas, the result are as followings: (1)Under the 5 designed situations, we can find that even if the first situation has best container capacity within the concession period, the value of multiple decisions added to the project is negative. To decrease the loss and make private investors able to gain reasonable profit (ROI equals 15% in this BOT project), it is suggested that the related investors negotiate with the government by legal approaches. (2)Due to the performance of container capacity of Taipei Port lying beyond the expectation, the authority can offer advantageous treatments to carriers and build more multi-functioned ports to attract investing. To cut down the recession’s affect to the growth of capacity.