低成本航空公司進出航線分析－以美國國內航線為例

Abstract

近年來，低成本航空日漸盛行，其發展為航空界帶來巨大之影響。低成本航空創立時，必會面臨經營航線之選擇課題，然而過去文獻多針對航空公司進入市場進行分析，少有文獻針對航線進行探討；另外，甚少文獻實證比較傳統航空公司與低成本航空公司在進入行為上之差異。本研究利用美國航空相關資料，建立航空公司航線進入模式，以探討不同種類航空公司之進入行為差異。研究結果發現城市經濟狀況、起迄點機場航空公司有效競爭家數、航程距離、於30大樞紐機場轉機等顯著影響航空公司航線進入之決策；不同類之航空公司，在進入航線之選擇上有不同之影響因素與權重，城市人口數、前期有營運航段、轉機航線等三項只有兩類低成本航空公司顯著，在起迄點座位數只有一般低成本與傳統航空顯著；而在相同皆為顯著之影響因素中，城市經濟狀況於低成本之權重較大，起迄點機場航空公司有效競爭家數及航程距離，在子母策略之低成本航空有最大之權重，於30大樞紐機場轉機則是一般低成本有最大權重。經由以航線為基礎作探討，發現航空公司發生進入行為，除了受到起迄機場對、城市對構成之市場影響外，航線的特性亦顯著影響航空公司之進入行為。 因各國看見低成本航空帶來的好處後，紛紛成立低成本航空公司，卻較少參考過去低成本航空營運失敗的例子，也少有研究對於過去退出營運的低成本航空進行航空公司退出營運之行為作分析，研究探討低成本航空公司營運失敗的因素，以及低成本航空退出市場營運之原因。本研究利用美國航空相關資料，建立航空公司航線退出模式，以探討不同種類航空公司於不同退出行為之影響因素差異。研究結果發現在整條航線與其中一航段的退出行為中，平均每人所得、轉機機場有效競爭家數、於航線提供之平均票價，在兩類航空公司的校估符號皆相同，且皆為顯著因素。兩模式中，校估結果不同之變數有：起迄點人口幾何平均、市場有效競爭家數、起點機場有效競爭家數、迄點機場有效競爭家數、航程距離、於30大樞紐機場轉機。由此可看出，影響航空公司在航線與航段的退出行為中，還是存在些許差異。 由於新的航空公司的進入會造成票價波動，進而影響社會福利。本研究建立票價模式，並經由計算結果得知，航空公司進入是有利於社會福利增加的，其中，由低成本航空所造成的社會福利變化量較傳統航空公司多，可知低成本航空進入新航線營運不但有利於社會福利之增加，也較傳統航空能帶來更多的社會福利。

For the past few years, Low-Cost Carrier become more and more popular, so Low-Cost carrier brings critical influence in aviation industry. When Low-Cost Carrier is built, it will face the issue of choosing operating route, because it must maintain operation by servicing some routes. But most of papers use market to be their research’s base, and few papers compare entry behavior between Low-Cost Carrier and traditional airline. This research uses route to be analysis’s base to create an entry model, and uses this model to estimate the difference of entry behavior between Low-Cost Carrier and traditional airline. As a result, we find economic condition of the city-pair, the effect competitive number of airlines, flying distance, using 30 main hub to be transferring airport are significant factors of airline’s entry behavior. We also explore different airline has different factors and weights. Population of city-pair, airline has operated one segment in the route of prophase, transferring route are the different factors of three types airlines. The weight of economic condition of city-pair on Low-Cost Carrier is larger. The competitive numbers of airlines and flying distances have the largest weight for Low-Cost Carrier with airline-in-airline strategy. Using 30 main hubs to be transferring airport has the largest weight of Low-Cost Carrier without airline-in-airline strategy. By means of using route to be research base, we know the entry behavior of airlines besides affected by airport-pair and city-pair. The characteristics of route affect the entry behavior, too. Because many countries saw the advantages of Low-Cost Carrier, they established new Low-Cost Carrier companies. However, they didn’t see the fail examples of Low-Cost Carrier. More specially, previous studies did not consider the factors relating exit behavior and analyzed exit behavior. This research used data from America aviation to establish exit model to discuss the different exit behavior of different airline in various routes. As a result, we find average personal income, the effectively completive number at transferring airport, average ticket price of airlines in the route explore the same sign and significant. But some factors have different results between traditional airline and Low-Cost Carrier, such as population of city-pair, the effectively completive number in the market, the effectively completive number at starting airport, the effectively completive number at ending airport, flying distance and using 30 main hub to be transferring airport. According to these results, we can know that there are some differences between traditional airline and Low-Cost Carrier. New entries will lead change of ticket’s price and affect the social welfare, so we create price model to investigate how the new entries influence the social welfare. This study develops price model and calculates the change of welfare due to the entry behavior so as to explore the entry behavior benefits the aviation market. The change of welfare caused by Low-Cost Carrier is more.