低成本航空服務市場需求分析

Abstract

低成本航空近年來逐漸席捲亞洲地區的航空市場，目前也有部分的海外低成本航空業者已進入台灣民航市場與本土航空公司競爭，可看出低成本航空對於台灣的影響日益增長，不容忽視。本研究以美國航空市場之數據資料，建立一旅運需求模式，以觀察低成本航空與傳統航空在不同航線上的總需求量變化及其競爭特性。進而，為將模式應用至台灣進行預測，在調整需求模式的參數後，評估其可移轉性。再依照模式更新轉移後的結果，進一步評估美國低成本航空需求模式轉移至台灣的可行性及分析其潛在旅運需求。 此模式應用巢式羅吉特架構，並檢定後發現不違背巢式羅吉特假設。其模式校估結果顯示，在航空競爭特性的部份，票價與頻次對於低成本航空的市佔率有顯著影響效果，而是否為直飛航線也會影響到其市佔率。而所得與距離，也會顯著影響航空總需求量。接著，從交叉彈性分析結果觀察，旅客對於低成本航空的票價與頻次變化的在乎程度，更甚於傳統航空。而將此需求模式進行模式更新後，其結果發現，需同時調整模式的方案特定常數與參數尺度，表示美國市場環境與台灣市場環境存在顯著差異。以移轉後模式進行預測，對於台北-大阪、台北-馬尼拉、台北-新加坡等市場的預測效果，都較更新前的預測效果為佳。最後，將更新模式應用至台灣進行預測，以每週有五班次，及低成本航空票價平均假設為傳統航空六折的基礎方案而言，引申需求的乘客數可能最少增加6597或最多增加31028人。

Low cost carrier (LCC) gradually plays an important role in Asia air-markets and there are some overseas LCCs competing with local carriers for Taiwan air-market, indicating that the influence of LCC on Taiwan is becoming huger. This study established a travel demand model based on American air markets data to investigate the competition between LCCs and full service carrier on different routes and the change of total air market demand. Furthermore, to apply the model on Taiwan air market, this study estimates the feasibility of transfer after adjusting parameters of demand models. According to the modified results, possibility of transferring American air market models to Taiwan is studied and induced demand is analyzed as well. These air demand models are established based on nested logit model, consisting with nested logit framework after being tested. As the result, the market share of LCC is greatly affected by ticket price and frequency. Besides, it also affected by whether the air-line is direct or not. In the cross-elasticity analysis, this model shows that passengers care about the change of LCC airfare and the frequency more than the traditional carrier’s change of airfare and frequency. After updating the model, it indicates that parameters of projects and scale of parameters are needed to be changed, showing that there’s a huge difference between the USA air market and Taiwan air market. By being studied with the transferring model, the forecast of air markets of Taipei-Osaka, Taipei- Manila and Taipei-Singapore are much better and more precise than the previous models. Finally, updated models, which is designed with five flights per week and 60% off from ticket price of traditional airfare, are applied to Taiwan market in order to figure out the possibility of LCCs and forecast the induced demand in Taiwan. Based on the basis of sensitivity analysis, the number of potential passengers might increase from 6597 to 31028 person-trips.