航空公司之航網型態與機場競爭程度對航班延誤影響分析

Abstract

本研究以計量模型探討航網型態與機場市場競爭程度對航班延誤之影響，並使用2011年至2015年美國國內航空公司-航段之資料層級進行分析。首先建立航網型態與機場競爭程度衡量指標，於航網型態衡量指標中，將不同型態轉機旅客對航班延誤影響進行深入探討。藉由控制其他變數(例如：天氣、需求與供給)的情況下，由起飛延誤、抵達延誤、有效飛行時間、Taxi-in延誤與Taxi-out延誤之效估模式結果指出：（1）第二段轉機旅客比越高，延誤情形越嚴重；（2）第一段轉機旅客比越高，延誤較少；（3）轉機旅客來源越集中，延誤情形較嚴重；（4）機場市場競爭程度越集中，則延誤情形較不嚴重，顯示航空公司有將延誤內化的傾向；（5）機場之聯盟市場集中度則對延誤無顯著影響。除此之外，本研究亦將研究結果應用於延誤來源分析，發現傳統航空公司延誤來源彼此差異甚小，低成本航空公司於航網旅客轉機比例與起點機場傳統航空公司比例彼此相差較大，因而造成延誤來源分析相差大，而兩類型的航空公司延誤均隨時間有越嚴重的趨勢。

This study develops econometric models at low aggregation (segment-carrier) level to investigate the effects of airline network and airport market structure on flight delays in the United States. We develop several measures of airline network and airport market structure. Specially, effects of different connecting passengers of a segment on delays can be examined. The estimation results, verify several hypotheses after the other factors, such as demand, capacity and weather, are controlled. Airline networks and airport dominance have significant effects on flight delays: (a) If the ratio of the second-segment passenger is higher, flight delay increases; (b) If the ratio of the first segment passenger is higher, flight delay decreases; (c) More concentrated connecting passenger would lead to higher delay; (d) Flight delays are internalized at dominated airports; (e) Concentration of alliance do not have significant effect on flight delays. In addition, this paper also illustrates the applications of the models, and clearly shows the different causes of delays of low-cost carriers and full-service carriers. It turns out that the sources of delays of full-service carriers are similar to each other. However, the causes of delays of low-cost carrier are different, especially the ratio of connecting passengers and ratio of full-service carriers in origin airport. In addition, flight delays of low-cost carriers and full-service carriers have increase.