關鍵字搜尋量應用於郵輪艙位訂購預測之研究

Abstract

郵輪產業近幾年蓬勃發展，尤其在亞洲市場的旅客量每年成長近8-9％，將成為亞洲的新興產業。以郵輪業者而言，預測各航次的旅客量需求為公司營運的重要課題之一。過去文獻使用的預測基礎資料皆以歷史資料為主，本研究以 Google Trend關鍵字搜尋量為基礎，作為預測分析的基礎資料，並探討郵輪艙位訂購的預測模式，預測國內郵輪艙位的旅客量。本研究將實驗包含兩個部分，分別探討關鍵字搜尋量對國外郵輪訂票量及國內郵輪訂票量的預測能力，並逐步探討Google Trend的關鍵字搜尋量能否很好的預測郵輪預定量。研究結果顯示，Google Trend關鍵字搜尋量預測郵輪的預定量的結果誤差極小，具有很高的精確度。

Cruise line industry has been developed rapidly, especially passengers in asia, which grows 8-9% annually, might lead cruise line industry to become one of budding industry of asia. It’s important to forecaste passengers per sailings to cruise line managers. Although forecasting has been studing widly, most of researchers rely on historical data for forecasting. This study use Google Trend data, which is based on Google volume query data, for forecasting, and examine the forecasting model of cruise line booking data. There are two part of this study. First, to understand the ability of Google Trend data for forecasting. Second, examine the forecasting power in Taiwan. The result has suggested that Google Trend data can predict the booking data effectively.