台積電股價與其領先指標之關聯研究

Abstract

市場供需狀況往往是決定公司營運是否足以獲利之重要因素，而公司獲利狀況又直接影響公司股價變化，然影響市場供需之因素眾多且繁雜，故藉由研究市場供需來做為公司股價變化之領先指標實為一件困難任務。然市場供需法則並不僅只影響公司之股價變化，其亦會影響公司之競爭對手與其客戶之股價，故本研究擬探討公司競爭對手與客戶之股價變化是否足以成為公司股價變化之領先指標。本研究以台積電為研究標的，並運用向量自我迴歸模型(Vector AutoRegression)研究台積電股價變化是否受其競爭對手與客戶股價變化之影響，從而討探競爭對手與客戶其股價變化是否存在足夠解釋能力擔當台積電股價變化之領先指標。由研究結果中亦確實發現台積電之客戶股價變化確實足以成為台積電股價變化之領先指標。

Revenue and profit of company determine by Market supply and demand, and the revenue and profit of company is the important variable that affect company’s stock price. But market supply and demand is complicated and complex. Therefore, the author intends to study the competitors and the clients stock price with company’s stock price relationship. So study TSMC with it’s competitors and clients relationship is very important to judge TSMC’s stock price. In this case, we found some customer affect TSMC’s stock price.