環境政策對於再生能源產業股價之影響，以台灣太陽能供應鏈產業為例

Abstract

近年來，可再生能源愈趨成為新聞關注的話題，主要原因來自於氣候變遷之下，極端天氣影響，媒體大肆報導世界各地的天候異象，同時讓大眾對於節能減碳及環境保護的議題，更加地熟悉。本研究之目的為調查研究國際環境相關政策與再生能源股價之關係，因此建立了6項假說，自2015年12月到2017年1月間，收集390個太陽能樣本，使用事件日分析法，經由一系列國際上重大的環境政策相關事件，測試台灣太陽能類股的反應波動。最後，本研究驗證了國際環境政策相關事件與太陽能、風能及生質能源股價表現之關係。

本研究之結果有下列幾項發現： 一、「美國與中國領袖電話會談，支持巴黎協定內容」、「巴黎協定通過門檻」及「巴黎協定正式生效」等三個正面環境政策事件的發布會帶來正向的異常報酬率。而「川普當選美國總統」、「川普發表百日新政」及「川普正式就職美國第45任總統」等三個負面環境政策事件的發布，則帶來了負向的異常報酬率。 二、負面事件的負面異常報酬，未必大面事件所產生的正面異常報酬 三、同系列的正面或負面事件中，先發布的事件，對股價的影響力大於後發布的事件。 四、樣本分群為上、中及下游供應鏈之後，可得知相同事件的影響之下，各層供應鏈公司股價之異常報酬率並沒有顯著的差異。 五、正面或負面事件對於不同類別之再生能源的股價，會出現不同程度的影響。

Renewable energy became the focus of the media for the past few years, and Climate Change is the main cause. Due to Extreme Climate that the newspapers played up these abnormal nature phenomenon. In the same time, people get more familiar with issues of “energy saving and carbon reduction” and “Environmental protection”. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relation between International Environmental Policy (IEP) and performance of renewable energy stocks. Therefore, the authors establish six hypotheses and collect the total of 390 solar photovoltaic samples from December 2015 to January 2017, using the event study methodology to examine the impacts of a series good and bad IEP news on Renewable Energy. Finally, the relation between IEP and performance of Solar Photovoltaic, Wind and Biomass Energy Stocks was examined in this study.

The major findings of this study are as follows: 1.The abnormal returns are significantly positive upon the positive events (“China, U.S. leaders hold telephone call on Paris climate accord”, “Paris Agreement crossed the threshold for ratification”, and “Paris Agreement enters into force”. And the abnormal returns are significantly negative upon the negative events (“Donald Trump wins the US election”, “Trump's first promises since winning the election”, and “Donald Trump swore in as 45th president of the United States”) 2.The impact of negative news does not necessarily greater than positive news. 3.The impact of the first news posting does greater than the second news posting in a series of positive or negative events. 4.The abnormal returns of upstream firms, midstream firms, and downstream firms do not significantly different in the same positive or negative events. 5.The impact of positive or negative news will be discrepant in different renewable energy groups.