在全球後量化寬鬆時期長假對於台灣網路購物產業股價的影響分析

Abstract

在全球後量化寬鬆 (Quantitative Easing，QE)時期，台灣經濟逐漸回溫。勞工上班族因為假期造成自由時間上升，利用容易取得的網路購物，逐漸形成在家消費的消費行為，即是所謂的宅經濟。本研究利用事件研究法(Event Study)探討長假對於台灣網路購物相關產業股價是否產生顯著的異常報酬？選定近兩年(2015~2016年)勞工上班族長假的事件日，加上網路購物相關類股(電商、第三方支付、物流業以及銀行業)的股價異常報酬率變化，選用凱恩斯主義經濟學，驗證宅經濟理論。實證結果顯示，當月的經濟環境狀況才是主要影響因素。長假在當月失業率較前月失業率下降時，勞工上班族有錢有閒就會進行消費，網路購物相關類股股價呈現上揚，有利於宅經濟。反之，長假在當月失業率較前月失業率上升時，勞工上班族會看緊荷包不進行消費，不利於宅經濟。

In the global post- quantitative easing (QE) Era, Taiwan's economy became gradually warmer. The worker’s time are free to raise due to long holidays, and most people choose to buy online to be satisfied. The workers choose to engage in easy access to online shopping, and gradually form at home consumer behavior, which we often hear about in the media called The Stay at Home Economic. In this study, the use of Event Study methods to explore the long holiday effect on Taiwan E-commerce shopping industry stock price is a significant abnormal reward (the third party payment, the logistics industry and the banking industry), using Keynesian economics to verify the economic theory of The Stay at Home Economic. The empirical results show the economic environment of a month is the main influencing factor. Holiday in the month when the unemployment rate fell more than the previous month, the labor office workers will be want to spend more money, online shopping related stocks rise, is conducive to The Stay at Home Economics. However, the holiday in the month when the unemployment rate rose more than the previous month, the workers be conservative not to spend, so it is not conducive to The Stay at Home Economic.