中國主要機場之航網發展對桃園機場之影響

Abstract

由於近年來中國機場的蓬勃發展，使得亞洲區域內的機場競爭日益激烈，尤其中國以三座沿海機場(北京、上海、廣州機場)之成長速度最為驚人，導致地理位置相近的台灣桃園機場亦深受影響。然而，機場在發展與壯大的背後，其實是由很多面向共同組合而成，不單單只是著眼於機場設施的興建，亦包含了營運管理、聯外交通系統、航空網路的連結、所在城市或國家之經濟發展等等條件因素，構成了一個機場對外的整體競爭力，而競爭力成果通常將直接反映在機場之運量高低、航線多寡的表現上，因此機場發展的最終目標是為了吸引更多旅客，以達到更高的旅運量。故本研究以航線市場之觀點探討機場競爭，以2004、2008、2012以及2016四個年度之全球航班資料，利用BCG矩陣分析中國三座沿海機場(北京、上海、廣州機場)與台灣桃園機場之航線市場現況，並引用開航預測模型找出四座機場未來的潛在市場，再進一步探討機場間市場重疊的現象，最後利用QSI市場預測方法分析四座機場未來之航線市佔率變化，以瞭解中國機場對桃園機場之航線市場影響。本研究結果可協助國籍航空業者瞭解未來潛在市場，作為日後新航線開發與航班規劃之參考；亦可提供桃園機場公司瞭解中國沿海機場對我國航線市場之影響，擬定未來機場發展策略與規劃機場各項設施，提升機場整體競爭力。

Due to the vigorous development of China's airports in recent years, the airport competition in the Asian region has become increasingly serious. In particular, China's three main airports (Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou) have grown significantly, Leading to similar geographical location in Taiwan Taoyuan Airport is also affected. This study explores the airport competition from the viewpoint of air routes development. Based on the global flight data of 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016, this paper analyzes the market status of China's three main airports (Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou) and Taiwan Taoyuan Airport by BCG matrix. Next, according to the reference model to find the potential markets of the four airports, and then further explore the situation of market overlap between the airports. Finally, the QSI market forecasting method is used to analyze the changes of the future market share of the existing overlapping market of four airports.The results would provide the aviation industry of Taiwan to understand the potential market of of Taoyuan International Airport. For airline companies, the study would be helpful for new routes development and flight planning.In addition, for Taoyuan International Airport Company, the study would also bring a point of view about the impact of growth of China's major airports on the air routes market, so as to formulate the airport development strategies and plan airport facilities to enhance airport operational efficiency and international competitiveness.