臺鐵平交道事故運轉整理決策支援模式之建立

Abstract

平交道對於鐵路系統來說，是事故易發生的處所之一，目前臺鐵局全線計有435處平交道，有關平交道的事故預防及事故應變處理都是非常重要的課題。當平交道事故發生後，調度員必須立即採取相關運轉整理策略，使事故的影響層面降至最低，這些策略往往取決於調度員的過去經驗及專業。然而平交道事故發生後，勢必造成列車運行複雜混亂，加上事故處理過程的不確定性，又得考量列車延遲傳播問題與搶修作業，要擬定出一個高品質運轉整理策略是相當困難的。

透過平交道事故後列車運行模擬，以了解各種運轉整理策略下列車延誤情形，將可提升調度員在平交道事故運轉整理的決策品質，並減少列車延誤影響。因此，本研究將建立起平交道事故後的運轉整理決策支援模式。

本研究根據歷史平交道事故來推估事故延遲模式，將事故影響時間與列車損傷、路線損傷、人員死亡、人員受傷、鐵路警察分駐所等因子進行迴歸分析，再經由本研究建構的列車延遲傳播模型，進行單線不通、雙線不通、尖離峰等不同情境下的列車延遲模擬，以推算出不同運轉整理策略下的旅客延遲情形。研究結果發現，如以最小旅客總延遲為目標，將以不採取接駁策略為佳；若以最小旅客延遲平方和為目標時，當事故處理及延誤時間越嚴重，有時候採取接駁策略反而較有效益。

Level crossing is usually regarded as one of the most vulnerable locations to train accidents of a railway system. There are a total of 435 level crossings of Taiwan Railway Administration (TRA), implying the importance to propose effective prevention and relief operation to level-crossing accidents. Once a level-crossing accident occurs, a dispatcher has to make a decision to relive the potential impact caused by the accident immediately. In practices, such a decision is usually made according to the experiences and professional judgement of the dispatcher. However, it is not an easy job to make a high-quality decision under complex and uncertain intertwined relationships among accident evolution, delay propagation of neighboring trains, and relief operations.

With well-informed situation regarding the potential consequences of various operation adjustment strategies right after the occurrence of a level-crossing accident, dispatchers can surely improve their decision quality and effectively curtail possible impact. To this end, this study aims to develop a decision support model for operation adjustments in response to level-crossing accidents.

To do so, this study firstly estimated an accident duration model based on historical level-crossing accidents by regressing accident duration time on contributing factors including train damage, railway damage, fatality, injury, and distance to police station. With predicted accident duration, blockage of single line or double line, and frequency density of neighboring trains, a delay propagation simulation model is developed to estimate the total passenger delays under various operation adjustment strategies, including Do nothing, Passenger-transfer, Single-line operation. In terms of passenger total delay, Single-line operation strategy is the best response choice in most of cases. However, in terms of total sum of squared passenger delay, if the accident duration is long, passenger-transfer strategy become favorable.