自由現金流量及剩餘盈餘評價模式之應用-以儒鴻及聚陽為個案

Abstract

本研究以台灣上市紡織公司儒鴻及聚陽公司為個案，分別以股權自由現金流量(FCFE)及剩餘盈餘(RE)評價模式評估各公司股價的合理價位，並與實際市價相比較，以瞭解目前股價為高估或低估，另探討兩種模式下的評價結果差異及找出最適合的評價模式，以供投資者制定投資決策之參考，實證結果顯示： 1.兩種評價方法評估儒鴻股價的結果，以剩餘盈餘評價法所求得之合理價值與當時股價之偏差最小。 2.兩種評價方法評估聚陽股價的結果，合理價值均較實際股價為高，顯示聚陽當時的股價可能被市場低估。 3.就投資策略而言，以剩餘盈餘模式的評價結果，較適合作為投資人投資策略之參考依據。

The main objective of this research is to use Free Cash flow of Equity model (FCFE) and Residual Earning Model (RE) to evaluate the theoretical share value of two Taiwan listed companies− Eclat textile co., Ltd and Makalot Industrial co., Ltd . The methods estimate the theoretical share value which is compared to market share price for judging undervalue or overvalue for the current price and to select out the most appropriate valuation method for the two Companies. This study would also provide evaluating methods to the investors for decision making and investment. The main analysis findings are as follows: 1.Two evaluation methods were used to estimate the theoretical share value of Eclat textile Company. Residual Earning Model evaluates the theoretical share value is nearest to the market share price. 2.Two evaluation methods were used to estimate the Makalot share price. The study finds that the theoretical share value is higher than its market price. The market price seems to be undervalued by the market. 3.In terms of investment strategy, according to the results of RE evaluation mode, it is more suitable as a basis for the investment strategy.