桌球競賽暫停策略之分析

Abstract

目的：運動競賽中暫停之申請為一決策行為，本研究旨在瞭解頂尖教練及選手申請暫停的時機，並探討暫停後之效益。方法：以2016年世界桌球錦標賽(World Table Tennis Championship, WTTC)男子團體賽八強選手作為研究對象，並以影片回顧之方式，蒐集半準決賽至決賽之暫停資料，所得數據以描述性統計建立基本資料，並以卡方適合度檢定分析暫停時機其次數之分佈情形。結果：暫停的使用率為83%，暫停局次以第3局的比率最高，局段以中局最多，比分情境最多為連續輸2-3分，暫停後的球權歸屬差異不明顯，領先時申請暫停的比率低於落後時，而暫停後1-4分的勝率約為50%。結論：現今桌球競賽十分重視暫停之申請並徹底執行，且暫停時機有提早之趨勢。而無論領先或落後時申請暫停，均具有正向效益。

Purpose: A claim for time-out in sports competition is a decision making. The aim of this study was to investigate the time-out timing from top-notch coaches and players, and also investigated the benefit after time-out. Method: Take quarter final of Men's team WTTC 2016 as subject, review the videos and collect the data of time-out from quarter final to final. The obtained data establishes basic data by descriptive statistics, and analyzes the distribution of time-out timimg times by the Test of Goodness-of-Fit. Result: Time-out rate was 83%, the highest rate of sets was in 3rd, and majority was in the middle stage. The maximum was when losing 2-3 score consecutively. The serve right did not differ a lot. Time-out rate in leading one is lower than trailing one. The winning rate is about 50% in 1-4 score after time-out was used. Conclusion: Nowadays time-out is highly valued and there is a tendency to shift the timing of time-out to an earlier time. However it both has a positive effect to time-out either in leading or trailing status.