Technology products’ organic growth or cannibalism? A multi-generation spatial mapping perspective

Abstract

高科技產品生命週期短暫，市場擴散可以生物物種演進的概念去詮釋，產品為一系列不斷進步調整的群體，而非具有固定的特徵。本研究以羅吉特形式市場佔有率模型，分析MP3音樂播放器品牌交易資料，以價格競爭指數計算替代產品的吸引力，探索誘餌產品是否引起消費者選擇時的妥協和極端趨避心態；進一步以空間時態的自我羅吉斯模式，整合產品吸引力之估算，捕捉新產品交叉銷售之自我蠶食或內在增長的意涵。研究結果提出產品相依性至空間自我相關集合，比傳統的線性銷售預測有較優之配適度，經產品內和產品間空間映射檢視跨世代新產品的有機成長，本研究對展望理論的消費者選擇之論述提出質疑。

Given their short life-cycles, the market diffusion of high-tech products can be interpreted from the perspective of biological evolution. Rather than objects with fixed characteristics, such products can be viewed as a series of continuously progressing product groups. Therefore, this study analyzes the transaction data of a MP3 music player brand by logit-type market share models and calculates price competition indices in order to estimate the attractiveness of alternative products and to assess whether decoys could create consumer compromise and “extremeness aversion”. As attractiveness is incorporated in an autologistic choice model of spatial-temporal patterns, we use this model to capture the cross-selling patterns of a new product’s cannibalism or intrinsic growth. Integrating product interdependence by modeling a set of spatial autocorrelation choices allows for a superior fit compared to traditional linear sales predictions. Lastly, to survey the organic growth of new cross-generational products we assess long-term survivability via intra- and inter-competition spatial mapping. The findings herein cast doubts on the use of the prospect theory to predict consumer choices.