以跨代空間映射觀點探討新產品的有機成長與交叉存活競爭

Abstract

科技品短暫的存續期間，市場擴散可以生物物種演進的概念來詮釋，使產品為一系列不斷進步調整的群體。本研究從單一品類的角度，觀察品牌產品在不同的進化階段，市場上相同屬性但不同規格產品的價格競爭形勢。從行銷的觀點，以羅吉特形式市場佔有率模型，分析台灣某通路商實際的交易買賣資料，藉由價格競爭指數計算出價格交叉彈性，反映品牌產品的相對吸引力，探索誘餌產品是否引起消費者選擇時的妥協和極端趨避心態；進一步以空間時態的自我羅吉斯模式，整合產品吸引力之估算，概念地捕捉新產品交叉銷售之自我蠶食或內在增長的意涵。此外，從市場進入的觀點，以存活分析檢視產品的品類族群競爭，Cox正比例涉險模式顯示價格因素並不顯著。研究結果驗證早期階段消費者的妥協選項，考量產品間的相依性至空間自我相關集合，比傳統的線性銷售預測有較優之配適。透過心理與物理的討論，本研究認為妥協效果並非科技軌跡的唯一決定因子，其可能是基於買賣雙方內在趨力和產品發展路徑的必然結果；以產品內和產品間的空間映射，檢視跨世代新產品的有機成長，除了推翻「新高科技商品一定能存活」的假設外，也對展望理論「消費者傾向妥協中間選項為最佳決策」的論述提出質疑。

The market diffusion of high-tech products with their short life cycle duration can be interpreted in terms of biological species evolution, that is, as a series of continuously progressing product groups. This study focuses on different evolutionary stages of the same property, which differs in product specifications competition, from the perspective of a single brand product category. The transactions data of a leading brand of an actual Taiwan MP3 music player was analyzed by logit-type market share models. Price competition index and cross-price elasticity were calculated to estimate alternative products’ attractiveness, and, consequently, whether the decoys create consumer compromise and extremeness aversion mentality. The autologistic choice model for a spatial-temporal pattern was also demonstrated to incorporate attractiveness in formal choice models; these estimates enable the authors to conceptually capture the cross-selling patterns of a new product’s cannibalism or intrinsic growth. Additionally, the market entry view is also adopted to consider product survival duration; the Cox proportional hazard model reveals price is non-significant factor. The results verify consumers’ midway compromise and decoy options at earlier stage. Incorporating the interdependence of products by modeling a spatial autocorrelation choice set leads to superior fit compared with the traditional linear sales predictions. This study proposes that compromise effect is not the only determinant for product growth, but that it may inevitably result from the technology’s trajectory and product development path based on a two-fold inner drive. Using intra- and inter-competition spatial mapping to survey the organic growth of new cross-generational products, the long-term survivability can be assessed. These assessments have cast doubts on consumer acceptance of a new product launch, and the discourse of an individual’s best choice as in prospect theory has been questioned, as this choice seems more compromised intermediate.