德爾菲法在技術前瞻之運用探討—以奈米材料為例

Abstract

現今科技快速地改變影響全球社會與經濟，許多先進國家利用各種技術前瞻方法來預測未來科技的變化。德爾菲法(Delphi Method)為前瞻研究的一種方法，日本、英國、德國、法國、韓國及中國等國家先後採用大規模德爾菲法來進行前瞻研究，並做為科技政策制訂之參考。奈米材料科技為21世紀產業發展原動力，奈米材料的發展勢必影響我國目前最具競爭優勢之的半導體、光電及資訊等高科技產業的未來發展，由於目前國內奈米材料前瞻性研究著墨有限，因此本研究透過蒐集各國奈米材料前瞻之議題，透過各界專家意見，以德爾菲法來進行我國奈米材料前瞻。本研究結果顯示奈米粉體製造技術與奈米複合材料技術為目前較為成熟且人才充足度也相對較高之技術，而自組裝奈米結構技術是之中專家認為最不成熟且人才充足度最低的領域。此外奈米粉體製造技術與奈米複合材料技術將在2007至2010年達到研發成熟，其餘奈米材料相關技術則會在2010至2015年達到研發成熟，但實際上從研發成熟到市場應用還需更長的時間。專家認為在2020年高分子光學顯示薄膜應用製程技術為我國競爭力最高的奈米材料技術，此外生產技術與經濟規模可能是奈米材料未來最大的瓶頸與挑戰。

Rapid technology changes affect societies and economies throughout the world. More and more developed countries try to forecast technology changes using different types of foresight methods. One of them is the Delphi method which is now used in countries including Japan, England, Germany, France, Korea, and China to do foresight research and adjust technology policies. Nanomaterials are the basis of technological advancements in the 21st century. They affect the future development of many other high technology industries such as semiconductor, electro-optics and information industries, in which Taiwan has the highest competitive advantage. Due to the lack of foresight research of nanomaterials in Taiwan, foresight issues of nanomaterials in other countries and suggestions from local experts are collected as inputs to the foresight research conducted using the Delphi Method. The results suggest that nanopowder manufacture technology and nano-composite materials technology are more mature now and will be in late stage development by 2007~2010. Others will be in mature development by 2010~2015, but it will take more time to be of practical use in the market place. The experts also suggest that applied manufacture technology of macromolecule optical thin film will be the industry with the most potential for Taiwan in 2020, and that the biggest challenge of nanometerial in Taiwan may be the manufacture technology and economies of scale.