中國大陸四大區域經濟成長的灰色相關因子

Abstract

本研究將中國大陸分成東北、東部、中部以及西部四大經濟區域，利用灰色系統理論探討2001~2006年影響中國大陸各區域經濟成長的因素。所有名目變數皆以GDP平減指數轉換為2001年為基期的實質變數。灰色關聯指出：每個地區的GDP都與出口、進口、投資、消費的擁有高度關聯性。接著建立GM(1,5) 模型，來探討各區域之經濟變數與GDP成長的協調性；並且利用MAPE檢視GM(1,5) 模型在預測GDP的精準度。除了東北地區之外，其他地區的預測能力都很高。此外分析各省之間出口的關聯情形，結果說明中國大陸中西部出口引擎來自於遼寧省，並且探討造成各省關聯度高低不同的原因。

The grey system theory is used to study the factors of economic growth of four areas: the northeast, east, central, and west in mainland China. The regional GDP is highly grey correlated with regional export, import, investment, and consumption. Nominal variables are transformed into real variables in 2001 prices by GDP deflators. The GM(1,5) model shows that highest grey correlated factor of economic growth in the northeast and east areas is investment, and that in the central and west area is consumption. The exporting engine driving the central and west areas in mainland China is Liaoning.