台灣薄膜太陽能電池產業發展分析研究

Abstract

台灣的太陽能產業自1999年發展迄今，已有超過 8 家上游太陽能矽晶材料廠商，中游 20 家已量產或計畫投入的太陽電池廠商，20 家已量產或計畫投入的太陽電池模組廠商，下游系統及週邊零組件與應用產品廠商家數有 50 家，短短數年問，產業從業廠商家數已近百家，產值已破百億新台幣，已然具備完整的上中下游生產體系，並已形成產業聚落現象，在我國的光電產業中，即將超越LED產業產值，並躍居全球第五大太陽電池生產國，不論在品質、交期、價格、生產彈性和產量能力均具國際競爭力。

但於近兩年來，由於全球矽晶圓嚴重的供需失衡，直接衝擊到以矽晶圓為主要原料的結晶矽太陽能電池產業，雖然目前仍為結晶矽太陽能電池市場主流，但已逐漸出現次世代的非晶矽(a-Si)、碲化鎘(CdTe)及銅銦硫(CIS)薄膜型太陽能電池商業化量產技術，在其年成長率遠遠大於結晶矽太陽能電池狀況之下，台灣各大結晶矽太陽能電池廠及相關IC產業如雨後春筍般的競相於台灣設置薄膜型太陽能電池廠，並以向國外整廠輸出的模式快速建立生產線以投入生產。

本研究係經由歷史資料蒐集，了解全球與台灣薄膜太陽能電池產業的發展歷程與現況，進而分析薄膜太陽能電池各主要生產國的國家競爭力，探討及歸納台灣薄膜太陽能電池產業的競爭優勢，最後對產業的競爭策略，提供具體建議，以供政府及業者參考。

The solar cell industry in Taiwan has been developing since 1999. Today, in 2008, 8 suppliers exist in the upper-stream of wafer supply, 20 suppliers are devoted or planning to invest in mid-stream, solar cell technology, 20 suppliers are devoted or planning to invest in mid-stream system integration and over 50 suppliers are invested in the down-stream of product application or related accessories industries. In these few years, the number of suppliers in the solar cell industry has risen to almost one hundred and the yearly production revenue is over 10 $NT billion. Over the past nine years, the entire industry supply chain was established and the industry cluster was also strengthened. The annual revenue of the solar cell industry will exceed that of the LED industry in the near future. Additionally, Taiwan was ranked fifth in the world among solar cell producing countries.

Over the past decade, wafer-based crystalline silicon solar modules have predominantly been the material of choice in production; however, due to a major material supply shortage in silicon, used to produce silicon wafers, a significant shift in production methods could be on the horizon. Amorphous silicon (a-Si), Cadmium telluride (CdTe) and copper indium diselenide (CulnSe2, CIS), used to produce thin film solar cells, have the potential to become more commercialized and have maintained a significantly higher growth rate than silicon-based solar cells. An overwhelming majority of silicon-based solar cell suppliers are planning to change to the thin film solar cell field and intend to follow the turnkey model to establish the production line more easily and smoothly.

This thesis analyzes the comparative competitive advantage among main solar cell producing countries. It is comprised of historical data, comparing Taiwan’s thin film solar cell development and growth with that of other countries throughout the world, investigating competitiveness from both a global perspective and a country perspective from Taiwan to induce a competitive advantage in the thin film solar cell market. Furthermore, this thesis provides strategic suggestions for the potential manufacturers as well as government regulators.