多代擴散模型實證研究 ─ 以H公司寬頻客戶為例

Abstract

隨著消費者對上網頻寬的需求，以及光纖寬頻技術的不斷進步，台灣寬頻上網服務也逐漸從ADSL演進到光纖(FTTx)，電信業者也持續投入大量資金以提高光纖的供裝範圍，以提供更快速的上網服務，但是在實際建設之前，必須對光纖服務的需求加以預估，以決定投資速度與規模大小。 本研究以台灣某電信業者(簡稱H公司)的ADSL及光纖用戶數為研究對象，用戶數資料自2000年1月至2008年7月，共採用103期。使用Bass and Bass(2004)的多代擴散模型研究H公司光纖用戶數擴散的適配性。 研究結果顯示BB04X(g)模型，配適效果與預測能力最好，並以該模型預估H公司98年光纖用戶數。研究並發現H公司寬頻客戶數的模仿係數均大於創新係數，因此寬頻用戶的擴散受口碑傳播（Word-of-mouth）的影響大於促銷活動(大眾媒體廣告)的影響，另外在產品生命週期成長階段的策略，H公司可考慮以拓展產品廣度、推出整合寬頻與應用服務的套裝服務等方式，加速光纖用戶數的擴散，同時擴大市場佔有率。

As the consumers' demand for more bandwidth, the broadband services in Taiwan are continually evolving from xDSL to FTTx. Companies rely on demand forecasts to justify the considerable investment needed to ensure capacity availability at the right time. This paper takes advantage of the Bass diffusion model to understand the dynamics of the broadband subscribers of H Telecom ,and focuses on the empirical research of multi-generational diffusion model. The data is taken from H Telecom during the period of 01/2000 to 07/2008.Bass and Bass (2004) multi-generational models with different coefficients of innovation and imitation are applied. The results indicate different innovation and imitation coefficients of different generations best fit the H Telecom's broadband subscribers.In addition, the diffusion growth pattern shows that coefficient of imitation is bigger than coefficient of innovation .This suggests that H Telecom should apply“imitation” strategy to speed up the diffusion of its FTTx service. And in the growth stage of PLC of FTTx , H Telecom should invest in adding new product features or improving the quality of the product to gain more market shares.