多代擴散模型與銷售起飛現象之研究：以族群生態學觀點

Abstract

在現實世界中，新一代的創新科技產品總是扮演著狩獵者的角色，不斷誘捕或說服前代產品的採用者轉換並使用新一代產品，期望新產品上市後，能夠迅速地達到銷售起飛現象並跨越鴻溝，讓產品能夠廣泛地擴散到市場上。多代擴散模型的學者常指出，各代產品之間的競爭互動，並非只存在著一種替代關係，當然也可能產生互補與競爭平衡的情況；不過在目前的研究中，能夠具備擴增解釋變數的彈性並且精確地配適與預測銷售需求的模型並不多見，若同時考量到可能的競爭關係與提供銷售起飛線索的多代擴散模型更是相當缺乏，因此本研究希望發展一套較全面性的多代擴散模型，以期在不同的競爭互動下能夠實現上述之目標。

在本研究中詳細說明了我們提出的模型，其結合了族群生態理論中的食物網模型以及經典的Bass模型之觀念，同時我們也運用了日本三大電信業者之第二代與第三代手機用戶數資料來進行驗證，研究結果顯示本模型不僅在配適過去成長情形以及預測未來用戶數上有著相當準確的表現之外，並且能夠提供我們判斷新產品能否達到銷售起飛門檻的線索。總結來說，本研究希望能解釋公司之間不同世代產品的動態關係，並且提供決策制定者藉此更進一步了解關於新產品上市的相對競爭強度。

A newer generation of product always plays a role of predator that feeds on prey often composed of former generations of products in the real world. Researchers of multigeneration diffusion model have often suggested that competitive interactions among generations possess not merely substitution relationship but also other ones such as complementary situations, competitive equilibrium, and so forth. However, research which has proposed a model that can be widely employed under possible circumstances, flexibly extended by crucial explanatory variables, and precisely examined by means of the criteria of sales fitness, sales forecasting, and takeoff determination is scant. Therefore, the aim of this article attempts to empirically develop a comprehensive multigeneration diffusion model to achieve these objectives under different competitive interactions.

This study elaborated our proposed approach, comprised of the notion of population ecological theories concerning the food-web model and the classic Bass model. Meanwhile, the data of top three telecommunication carriers in Japan that each introduced two generations of cellular phone services were taken into consideration for verification. Results of this study showed that not only did this argued model perform fairly well on fitness and prediction of subscribers but also it could provide us some clues for determining the takeoff phenomenon. To conclude, this study may be of importance in explaining the dynamic relationship between generations in different companies, as well as in delivering decision makers with a better understanding of comparative intensity of competition for new products launches.