運用生態理論探討後3G行動通信產業之變遷與發展以及台灣廠商之挑戰與機會

Abstract

第三代(3G)行動通訊的應用服務已在先進國家蓬勃發展，歐盟針對行動數據傳輸的費率訂定上限，因此預期未來歐盟國家消費者對行動上網的資料傳輸需求將大幅成長，以及多元化的應用及服務將整合至寬頻行動網路之中。在後3G產業生態系中，產業鏈的生態不像以往般單純，新的技術或產品創新或服務創新，例如Apple的i-Phone與iTune服務，都會對原有產業鏈中每個角色的價值產生劇大的衝擊。因此，如何先期窺知後3G行動通信產業變遷的趨勢，並掌握其發展契機，乃是任何通信業者經營管理的一大課題。 本研究以產業生態系理論為基礎，探討後3G行動通信產業之發展趨勢及價值鏈變遷，希望特別針對後3G行動通信產業建立一個生態系理論分析模型，除了藉以分析後3G行動通信技術之發展趨勢，推論行動通信產業體系內成員間的依存、互動、價值創造與分享模式能產生之影響力，並分析其對行動通信產業生態體系之衝擊。此外，此模型將建議台灣廠商如何掌握後3G行動通信產業生態體系與如何善加運用生態體系內資源，產生競爭優勢。並以國內經營者之角度，針對全球後3G行動通信市場之商機，分析台灣廠商面對的挑戰與機會，並提出經營競合策略和營運模式建議。 第四代(4G)行動通信系統將會是由LTE或是WiMAX兩者中哪個技術標準勝出?本研究以產業生態系理論為基礎，建立一個評估LTE和WiMAX在後3G行動通信產業競爭優劣態勢的理論框架。本研究結果指出雖然WiMAX在標準與佈建上稍早於LTE，但LTE的優勢是能借力於現有3G生態系的豐沛資源與高市佔率所衍生的規模經濟，將演變成為4G行動通信產業的主流。 本研究之生態系理論分析模型除了運用來評估行動通信產業新技術之競爭外亦可使用來分析台灣通信產業之優劣勢及機會，透過理論分析模型可以提供政府未來制定產業政策時快速簡易之比較分析，並以WiMAX為案例提供政府檢討產業政策之建立模式。

The application service of Third Generation (3G) mobile telecommunications is gradually progressing in developed countries. By setting a maximum rate for mobile data service, the European Union (EU) is able to anticipate the substantial growth in the consumers’ mobile internet demand for data transmission in European countries, as well as to integrate the wide range of applications and services into the broadband mobile networks. In the post-3G era, the new technology and innovation is changing the ecosystem of the value chain.For instance, the iPhone with iTune service has brought big impact to the existing players in the value chain.Therefore, trying to forsee the changing and migration of the mobile communication industry and catch up the opportunity is the key aspect in the management of technology. This research is based on the industry ecology theory to discover the trend of post-3G mobile communication industry and the shifting of value chain.A theoretical analysis model is established to evaluate the interdependence as well as value sharing of players inside the ecosystem.In addition, this model give an assessment and recommendation to Taiwan communication company the way of leveraging resources in the ecosystem to create competitiveness and overcome the challenge. With regard to Fourth Generation (4G) mobile communication system, which of the two technological standards, LTE or WiMAX, will prevail? This research uses the industry ecology theory to assess the merits and drawbacks of both LTE and WiMAX in the midst of industry trends. The results show that although WiMAX proved superior to LTE in certain technological capabilities, the abundant 3G ecology resources provide LTE with a strong leverage and thus allowing it to develop its way to the mainstream of the 4G mobile communication industries.