運用技術預測方法評估4G無線寬頻網路通訊技術的發展與佈局 - 以WiMAX及LTE為例

Abstract

本研究旨在觀察日新月異的通訊產業發展，正當此刻第四代(4G)通訊技術萌芽之際，運用方法預測其發展並做出產業佈局的建議。

本研究之研究標的在4G技術WiMAX及LTE的技術發展，並就其市場變化做產業觀察，最終運用情境分析法及專家問卷法預測其發展可能情境。

最終研究結果顯示LTE將接替目前的3G技術成為下波行動通訊的主流，WiMAX將處於過渡角色並逐漸淡出市場。

最後就未來的科技產品，做出個人行動影音裝置及車載智慧型裝置做出兩大方向預測，並就後續研究方向，提出提升應用與服務的方向建議。

The purpose of this research is to observe the fast developing of communication industry. At the moment of the 4G technology beginning, we try to forecast its development and suggest how the industrial deployment should be.

The main objects are LTE and WiMAX. We observe the technology development and also the changing of their market. Then we use Senrio and Dephi to find out the possibility of its development.

The result of this resourch shows that LTE will replace 3G and be the next main technology of wireless communication. WiMAX will be in the middle of that and phase out soon.

Finally, we estimate that there will be two major products based on 4G technology. One is personal mobile vedio device, and another is smart device on vehicle. For further research, we suggest that application and service on 4G network could be a good direction.