以情境分析法來分析未來五年無線通訊技術(WiMAX)結合液晶觸控螢幕應用產品之發展

Abstract

本論文之研究宗旨主要在研究運用在數位生活中的下一世代科技產品,此科技產品是由新一代無線通訊技術(WiMAX)結合液晶觸控螢幕(TFT-LCD touch panel)而成.在此論文中將運用情境分析法(SRI-Stanford Research Institute)來預測描述到2013時此類科技產品的運用發展,也將提及未來可能的數位生活情境.更期盼藉由此研究報告為台灣相關產業針對未來的產品規劃與市場行銷策略方向提供建議.本文從相關技術資料,市場資訊,國家政策與產業專家的訪談,以尋找關於此科技產品運用發展的重大影響不確定因素,本文中並建構此科技產品及對相關產業未來發展的可能情境.

本研究中發現影響此科技產品產業發展的重要不確定因素包含; 一:全球經濟復甦程度(全球金融危機從2007年中開始由美國引爆並擴散,至2009年時仍無轉好跡象) 二:新世代性產品技術發展的不確定性(WiMAX) 三:產品應用之擴散普及程度.並依據市場需求,技術發展變化,產業環境結構變化等三個不確定性軸面,建立了市場停滯不前,獨佔鰲頭,競爭激烈與技術發展停滯等四種可能的未來情境.

在本文最後將參考專家問卷調查結果並選出先前四種可能的未來情境中”競爭激烈情境”做進一步的分析與探討,並期望將相關結論提供給台灣相關產業業界與政府施政做為參考與建議,其中提出包括策略聯盟合作(WiMAX結合TFT-LCD touch panel 業者),自有品牌行銷,企業整合併購（水平整併）等建議,更期望台灣相關產業可以在下波經濟復甦成長時,引領群雄,重拾台灣的驕傲.

The purpose of this research is to have the futher understanding about the next generation applied technology products for digital life.Applied technology products combine wireless telecommunication technology (WiMAX) with display (TFT-LCD with touch panel).The SRI (Stanford Research Institute) method will be implemented to predict the influence and change to human bee by those kinds of products. It will also predict the possible scenarios of digital life in next coming five years. To not only describe and analyze four kinds of scenario, but also to offer Taiwanese related industry the recommendations for its future operation stradgy, by means of related data collecting, marketing news analysis, policy of Taiwanese government and expert’s interview.

In this study, the critical influence factors to these applied technology products are inclusive; 1: Global financial crisis and recession (The crisis is initialed from U.S subprime mortgage crisis and then induces global recession until 2009).2: The unpredictable development of technology to new generation products. (Can Wimax replace the Wi-Fi and 3G) 3: Will the products be popularized and accepted by consumers. Furthermore, according to three uncertain factor axes (The supply and demand, the progress of technology and the change of industry environment). Four kinds of possible scenarios are built up on above items, they are “The market has come to standstill”,”Market monopolization”, “Extremely competitive” and “No progress of technology development”.

In conclusion, the scenario “extremely competitive” has been selectived by means of the conclusion of expert questionary.By analyzing the scenario “extremely competitive”, there are several suggestions could be good advices to government and related field. The recommendations include; 1. To forge an alliance (WiMAX with TFT-LCD touch panel) 2.To development own brand products. 3. Cooperation merger (horizontal mergers).