臺北市重大交通違規影響因素之分析

Abstract

違規的駕駛行為危害道路交通安全、破壞交通秩序，若發生交通事故與人員傷亡，更造成家庭、社會問題及國家經濟之損失。本研究以臺北市實際的違規資料進行分析，探討違規之特性，期以提供交通相關主管單位做為交通宣導及執法之參考，俾能有助於交通安全與行車秩序之改善。 本研究首先回顧相關文獻資料，彙整影響交通違規之可能因素，據而選定本研究探討之因素。其次針對重大違規之定義，進行資料收集及整理，確定本研究之探討問題，並建立假說，說明選用之分析方法及研究變數，接著針對選定之因素進行民國九十二年相關資料之收集與整體性之統計分析，並分別針對整體性資料及分車種別之資料構建二元羅吉斯迴歸(Binary Logistic Regression)模式，依據模式結果，再對各項影響因素加以檢定及分析。 研究結果顯示，整體而言，性別、年齡、持照年資、車種、車齡、交通尖離峰時段、週日別及季節對重大違規之發生皆有顯著之影響。對汽車駕駛人而言，年齡與重大違規之關係並不顯著，對機車駕駛人而言，性別及週日別與重大違規之關係並不顯著。

Traffic violation brings traffic danger,especially when accident, death or injury happens,that usually result in social and economical problems. The pur- pose of this thesis is to analyze the real data of traffic violation and to explore the influenced factors of traffic violation. Based on the results of those analysis, some improvement about safety education and traffic law enforcement can be suggested, in order to enhance the public safety and the effectiveness of en- forcement. This thesis firstly reviews the relevant literature and summarizes the possi- ble influenced factors of traffic violation, from which major factors being stu- died are selected. Secondly,defines what is the major traffic violation, explains how to collect and process data,then setup the objectives and the hypotheses to be tested in this thesis. Research method & variables adopted in this thesis are then explained . After that,all the required data in the year of 2003 are collected and ana- lyzed, then several Binary Logistic Regression models are developed – based on overall data & by type of vehicle respectively. Finally,base on the results of models,the hypotheses are tested,and their meaning are explained. The result is,overall speaking,the eight factors, including gender,age,years of licence,type of vehicle,age of vehicle,peak or non-peak traffic time,weekday /weekend and season are statistically significant for major traffic violation. For car driver,age is not significant, but, for motor driver, gender and weekday/ weekend are not significant for major traffic violation.