實質選擇權賽局與策略投資:手機EMS產業之應用

Abstract

在手機EMS產業中，產能的供應扮演極為重要的角色。企業為了獲得額外的訂單以及利潤往往利用企業購併的投資策略來獲取競爭優勢。本文嘗試把實質選擇權與賽局理論引入策略投資的決策之中，並以富士康與比亞迪的競爭為例，建構實質選擇權賽局來分析策略投資決策。本文利用賽局理論模型將競爭對手之反應納入分析，並在每一階段裡探討策略投資的可行性。此外，本文亦將實質選擇權的價值拆解為策略價值與彈性價值兩部分，配合比較靜態分析將各種可能的情境納入考量，將不同的策略價值呈現出來。最後，本模型估計購併專案的投資效益，並將將企業策略投資的競合關係進行整體性的分析。

In cellphone EMS industry, capacity supply is an important concern for producer. In order to earn additional profit, managers may choose capacity expansion strategies, such as strategic M&A, to compete with their rivals. This study uses the options-game framework to value an M&A project between Foxconn and its competitor BYD, and analyzes the investment strategies in each stage. We take account of the effect of BYD’s responses and distinguish the flexibility and strategic value. In addition, we examine how sensitive a particular NPV is to changes in underlying assumptions.