實質選擇權於技術移轉定價之研究-以鴻海與廣達購併案為例

Abstract

在高度競爭的環境和資源的限制下，許多企業利用技術移轉以較少的資源去達成更多的目標，然而影響移轉技術價值的因素有哪些？並且評價出來的價值是多少？正是當前企業所急需瞭解的課題。本研究利用實質選擇權理論，提供符合技術移轉情況的定價模型，考量授權、購併與策略聯盟的三種技術移轉情況，來探討這些現象，並找出適合的因素與模式。本研究參考Bollen(1999)之研究，以市場需求表示技術價值主軸，探討過去文獻關於影響移轉技術價值的因素，加入以下六方面因素：決定技術移轉所需時間與等待機會成本、未來市場價值、潛在替代技術、雙方目標一致性、技術未來發展資本投入機率、研發與未來的成長，並且依據技術移轉的特性，探討三種選擇權對於價值的影響，遞延選擇權用於技術是否移轉、擴張選擇權用於對於技術未來發展樂觀、放棄選擇權用於對於技術未來悲觀甚至放棄，提供一個更具彈性與符合技術移轉的鑑價模型。最後以實際個案為例，本研究針對鴻海與廣達兩家公司在產業上的態勢作分析，並評估與分析兩家公司合作的可能性，首先對於鴻海、廣達歷年股價做探討，討論影響鴻海與廣達的公司價值因素，並且利用蒙地卡羅模擬法來模擬股價作未來預測。在個案分析中，本研究以三個方向來探討公司的價值：預估報酬、預估風險、時間彈性與管理決策權利。預估報酬部份，本研究認為筆記型電腦將是穩定成長的市場，但是毛利率的持續降低是獲利的隱藏危機，但是百元電腦可能是廣達最大的轉機；預估風險部份，面對愈來愈多筆記型電腦代工廠的競爭，廣達是否還能成為電腦品牌大廠的首選，此乃未知數，並且百元電腦也是屬於風險性極高的研發；在時間彈性與管理決策部份，百元電腦的研發將是未來公司價值的重點，而最後在協商價格時，必須考量廣達與鴻海合作對廣達股價的影響。利用以上的方式，本研究預估若鴻海以取得廣達股數的策略作為購併活動，則需要付出新台幣8億8仟萬元到21億4仟萬元；若鴻海以交換持股的方式與廣達合作，則鴻海需要以1:8到1:3的交換比率與廣達交換持股。

Many organizations are forced to attain the goal with limited resource under the pressure of intense competition and resource restriction. However what factors influence technology transfer? And what is the appraised value? It is exactly a subject that enterprises need to understand it at present. This research uses real option theory, which can provide the pricing models that fit the situations of technology transfer. Based on Bollen’s study (1999), technology value is evaluated by market demand and the following six factors: 1. transferring time and opportunity cost; 2. future market value; 3. potential substitute technology; 4. objective compatibility; 5. future capital investment; 6. R&D and potential growth. Besides, how three types of options, “Option to Defer Investment”, “Option to Expand” and “Option to Abandon for Salvage Value”, influence the value would be discussed and a more flexible and agreeable pricing model will be presented. In the end, a case study of Foxconn and Quanta will be analyzed and the possibility of strategic alliance will be evaluated. First, we would analyze the historical stock price of Foxconn and Quanta. Second, we would discuss the factors affecting organization value. Finally, we would apply Mondicaro theory to forecast the stock price. The research would argue the organization value in three dimensions: profit estimation, risk estimation, time elasticity and decision power of management. Based on the study, we found that the development OLPC and the strategic alliance with Foxconn are the main forces of future value. It is estimated that Foxconn should pay NT880,000,000-NT2,140,000,000 to merge with Quanta and Foxconn should exchange stock in 1:3 to 1:8 rates.