台灣車用燃料電池策略組合之研究

Abstract

本研究運用產業組合分析模式，透過策略群組及產業價值鏈，區隔氫能燃料電池車產業之定位發展。在研究方法上採取文獻分析、專家訪談、專家問卷調查，佐以無母數統計方法以進行小樣本專家問卷之推論。 研究結果顯示，目前台灣氫能燃料電池車產業現在仍處於萌芽期，燃料電池關鍵零組件還在研究開發階段，基礎建設還不完整。產業未來五年可能走向擴大相關產業平台及開始小規模量產的方向之成長期，上游氫能之基礎建設在未來更加重要。 台灣廠商在下游客戶車輛產業上較為欠缺，未來發展應以擴大燃料電池產業平台為導向，以特定產品為主要訴求。 對於氫能燃料電池車產業而言，其上游之氫能產業， 包括儲氫技術、產氫技術、運送技術及氫能載具的基礎設施，以及中游燃料電池與氫內燃機之研發、應用與推廣還在初期發展階段，需要政府政策上大力的支持，協助產業研發、取得關鍵技術、建立國內市場示範應用、維持產業活力等為主要策略。從問卷結果可以了解到現階段創新需求資源重要且配合不足要素，在五年後也大都仍是專家們認為重要的創新需求資源要素，僅國家基礎研究能力一項在問卷中，因專家們對於五年後的意見較有分歧，而沒列入重要且配合不足要素之一。另外在技術知識項目方面，五年後專家們認為重要且配合不足的要素由規格制定的能力變成為技術資訊中心、技術引進與移轉機制、技術擴散機制、產業群聚等要素，從單項變多項，點變成面，產業間的合作及群聚效應變成重點。另外專家們對於市場面如市場資訊、市場情勢、市場環境等要素在五年後也認為重要且配合不足的創新需求資源要素也有增加，另外需求量大的市場也顯示能將氫能燃料電池車商業化成功需要更大的市場需求來支持。

This thesis reports on a portfolio analysis for the strategic development in Taiwan’s FC-Powered Vehicles industry. Three research methods are used for data collection, which include literature review、 expert interview and general survey. Results show that current FC-powered vehicle industry in Taiwan is still at the introduction stage,the development of the full cell key components is still at R&D stage, infrastructure is still not ready, the related industrial platform will be expanded and this industry will be moving to early growth stage with small scale of manfucturing capacity set up in the next 5 years. The readiness of the infrastructure for hydrogen economics will be more and more important. Due to limited of customers in vehicle industry from the down stream, the direction of future development will focus on the expansion of fuel cell industry and focusing on specific products only. From the survey, we can understand present resources can not match the majority of the IIRs for FC-Powered Vehicles industry, the gap is still there even 5 years later. Particularly, the IIRs of development of research remain critical except “the fundamental research capability” , the key factors of “technology and knowledgement” changed from “spec. development” to other factors that are more related to cluster effect. “market situation”, “market information”, and “market environment” are becoming more critical in the future. It shows that a sizable market is the key for the commercialization of FC-Powered Vehicles .