評估日月光半導體公司成長策略

Abstract

半導體業的蓬勃發展帶動了台灣二十多年來的經濟榮景，而其中專業分工是台灣半導體產業成功的關鍵要素。從設計、製造、封裝到測試，尤其是後段的封測業自1994年起更如雨後春筍，一時間掘起多家廠商，形成競爭激烈的局面。近年國際大廠基於成本與專業的考量，漸有增加釋出代工訂單的趨勢，但封裝業者廠家數卻由2004年的37家減少成2007年的30家[1];加上大陸市場也同時相對不斷引入外資進入,故封測廠商不僅須面對國內外廠商的競爭，更要不斷投入高昂的資金以擴充產能提昇本身製程能力，並藉著與業界合作、策略聯盟和併購等方式增添產能實力.故如何提升營運績效並保有充裕的資金運籌則是近年常被業界關注的項目。 本研究主要是以一個台灣封裝測試公司-日月光半導體公司的發展歷史及相關財報來評估其企業成長策略。日月光半導體公司是一家成立於1984年的台灣專業半導體封裝測試公司資本額不過2億5,000萬元；2007年日月光市值近千億，20年來成長400倍[2]是藉著外界資源(來源不在本研究中探討!)投入或亦其本身價值引導而造就世界第一大封測廠?成為本研究的重點。 為了進一步瞭解該企業的發展，因此在論文中，除了變異數分析與因果檢定之外，也對該公司的近年來歷史財報資料與上市櫃同業進行比較分析，多方解析其企業。研究重要結論如下：1.日月光企業本身資產變動與其獲利無相關，故其成長的主因是資源投入型!2.日月光企業資產成長的動力為購併策略的成功執行;同時也帶來其獲利指標的主要推力。3. 景氣指標的負成長反而導致資產的成長，雖無直接的實證模型分析結果可以判斷與購併活動有因果關係，但可以推論景氣差時是確實有助贏得國際IDM 大廠訂單，從而增進公司業績。

Among all the key factors that led to the vigorous growth of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry during the past two decades, “Dedicated Specialization” is considered the most important one. Since 1994, the outburst of new players in every aspects of the semiconductor industry ranging from design, manufacturing, packaging to testing, had induced fierce competition within each sector. Because of such competition, the number of packaging houses in Taiwan had reduced from 37 in 2004 to 30 in 2007. However, driven by cost and industry disintegration, IDMs had gradually adopted asset-light strategy by increasing outsourcing ratios and releasing manufacturing orders. For those companies who want to have a share on IDM businesses, they would need to continue investing in capacity expansion and technology advances while competiting with both domestic players and those low cost competitors from China.Therefore, how to improve operation efficiency, ensure positive cash flow, and to add capacity support through strategic alliance or M&A, had been the most discussed issues in the industry. This research is aiming at the historical development and the related financial statement of ASE, a Taiwanese packaging & testing company, to study its growth model. Since the inception of ASE in 1984, ASE’s market cap had grown 400 times from NTD 250 millions to over NTD 100 billions and become world’ #1 assembly/test company. The main focus of this research is to discuss whether such high growth is built on external investment (the origin won’t be discussed in this research!) or on the intrinsic value growth of its assets. To further understand ASE's development, this research also carried out the comparative analysis on and between its historical financial statement in recent years and those of similar firms in the OTC market (or went public) to analyze the enterprise in every aspect. The noteworthy results are as followings: 1. ASE’s asset change is not directly related to its profits, therefore the principal factor of its growth is the resources investment! 2. The growth of ASE assets is attributed to the successful execution of its acquisition strategy which is also the driving force of its profit growth 3. Even though there is no direct model to prove the relevance between M&A activities and asset growth, we believe downturn had accelerated IDM’s order release which led to the asset growth of ASE during economy downturns.