飛機維修備品需求預測之研究-以BOEING 747機型為例

Abstract

因美國次級房貸引起全球性金融風暴造成經濟成長停滯，對航空公司之旅客載運量及貨運承載量皆明顯下降；當航空公司面臨營運收入減少時，航空公司必須積極降低營運成本，使得各航空公司紛紛在成本壓力下尋求最佳解決方案，所以飛機備品庫存問題的重要性越形明顯。 針對飛機備品庫存量控制不當不僅造成庫存成本偏高，資金積壓，而因缺料造成飛機營運航班延誤或取消的損失更是驚人。在飛機週轉備品成本高，使用率不確定、備品種類繁多、送修時間長短不一的情況下，要降低庫存成本又不致因缺料造成飛機營運損失，如何兼顧兩者一直是航空公司維修管理部門所面臨的困難點，而航空公司對於週轉備品需求預測之管理實務尚缺乏一套客觀有系統的運作方式。 因此本研究發現油價波動會影響飛機維修備品需求預測；以BOEING 747機型之機體維修備品為例，75.20%為間斷性且不是非常反覆不定型需求類型，而以不同飛機維修備品需求特性，必須運用不同的需求預測模式。

The U.S. subprimemortgage has resulted in the worldwide financial crisis with affection of economical flat growth as well as the sharp deduction to the passenger capability and freight loading capacity towards airlines. When facing the decreasing operation profits, airlines have to try the best positively to reduce the operation cost with the pursuit of the best solution under capital pressure. Therefore, to maintain the sufficient stock availability of aircraft spare parts has become more important. An improper inventory stock control will not only cause the bad debt itself but also cause the great loss result from flight delay or cancellation of spare parts shortage. It’s always a difficult lesson for airlines to maintain perfectly with a low stock operation cost but still have no unexpected shortage spare parts in every flight operation, no matter how much the repairable parts is, the low reliability spare parts is, the spare parts complexity is, and the unexpected turn around time of repair repairable spare parts is, An objective and systematic operation model shall be run out of airlines by managing a demand forecast to establish necessary repairable spare parts. Hence, It’s found in this thesis that fuel price fluctuation will affect the forecast of spare demand of aircraft maintenance, Take BOEING 747 aircraft frame spares for example, 75.20% of the spare demand is Intermittent But Not Very Erratic and a most suitable demand forecast should be found to be applicable for different kind of aircraft spare parts majorly in consideration of its demand characteristic.