優惠房貸政策對營建業上市公司股價表現影響

Abstract

為了促使房地產市場健全發展並穩定經濟的成長，台灣政府在2000年至2009年間連續釋出九次政策性優惠房貸，促使家戶購置自有住宅，希望藉此激勵房地產市場的復甦，帶動台灣房地產市場邁入新的榮景，並進而支持台灣的經濟發展。然而，政府持續減少各次優惠房貸增撥金額的補貼利差，另一方面，央行持續降息，導致優惠房貸利率與一般金融機構自辦之房貸利率差距明顯縮小，造成優惠房貸漸漸乏人問津。 本研究藉由事件研究法中市場模型進行實證分析，研究結果發現優惠房貸政策之施行在特定訊息發佈事件日對營建業公司之股價波動確實有所影響，產生異常報酬。研究結果顯示，優惠房貸對於營造業公司於事件一、事件六、事件九，呈現看空情勢，於其他事件均顯示出優惠房貸對於股價報酬變動有正面作用；而建設業公司在事件一、事件七，市場對於此政策為看空，其他事件顯示房貸政策對於建設業公司股價報酬有正面回應。

To promote the development of the real estate market and stable economic growth, the Taiwan government in 2000 to 2009 released nine consecutive mortgage interest-rate subsidy policy to promote household purchase their own homes, hoping to stimulate the real estate market recovery promote Taiwan's real estate market entering a new boom, and thus to support Taiwan's economic development. However, the Government continued to decrease in the amount of the various offers additional subsidies to mortgage spreads, on the other hand, the central bank continued to cut interest rates, leading to subsidy rates and general financial institutions run by the mortgage interest rate has significantly narrowed the gap, resulting in preferential home loans gradually attractive in. This study is to investigate and analyze the influence of the mortgage interest-rate subsidy policy on stock prices of the construction companies. Then we examine the stock price reaction of construction companies to this fiscal policy announcement by means of event study. We find that the stock price of construction companies is impacted by the policy. The stock price has obvious abnormal returns when the mortgage interest-rate subsidy policy was announced.