實質選擇權賽局於電腦產業因應低碳投資之應用

Abstract

全球暖化改寫了企業經營風險，面對來自於供給面和需求面之環境和行為改變，本篇研究試圖解答開發在追求股東權益最大化目標下，企業是否具足夠動機研發和量產低碳商品。

本篇研究探討價格競爭之電腦產業於低碳商品之投資決策，以台灣宏□公司其美國市場之競爭者為研究案例，運用兩期之實質選擇權賽局法分析該公司是否應進行低碳之「塑膠再生料電腦」之研發投資。

於本研究假設前提下，本研究發現Acer公司評估於美國電腦市場之投資決策時，綜合考量(1)碳排放政策、(2)研發之實質選擇權及(3)競爭對手互動反應後，應選擇進行「塑膠再生料電腦」研發，以獲取求最大利益。經敏感性分析發現，決定投資價值主要因素為(1)投資低碳商品對Acer公司未來之成本效益(即，暖化政策)，以及(2)需求量對Acer產品價格敏感性(即，消費者態度)。

The global warming is changing behaviors of supply and demand. The study attempts to resolve whether companies have enough motivations to investing in low-carbon products to maximize shareholder value.

The article uses two-stage Real Options Game Methodology to analyze how computer industry faces the limitation on greenhouse gases emissions(GHG), which is an additional cost to every company doing business in US market, and examine Acer and its competitors regarding the low-carbon investment on Post-Consumer Recycled Plastic Material Computer as case study.

Under the assumptions of this thesis and the conditions of price competition, the study finds that considering (1) U.S. GHG regulations, (2) R&D Real options, and (3)competitors’ reactions, the optimal decision of Acer is to invest in the Post-Consumer Recycled Plastic Material Computer to achieve maximum return. Through scenario analyses, this paper finds two key factors that determines investment value; they are (1) the future cost-effectiveness generated by low-carbon products for Acer (base on warming policy), and (2) elasticity of demand on price in Acer’s product (depending on consumers’ attitudes).