風險值於實獲值管理之應用－預算風險值模型

Abstract

一般專案管理中，風險管理主要著重於專案執行前，風險的辨識、分析、評價與處置，期待能夠透過這樣的過程減低專案執行過程中可能面臨影響重大的風險；然而，在專案執行過程中，仍然會有許多來自可預知或不可預知的風險，這些風險要如何量化，以便於監控及後續處理？這是專案風險管理中較弱且嚴重不足的一環。而專案管理方法中，實獲值管理系統(Earned Value Management System, EVMS)在許多國家並被認為是最好的專案管理方法之一；在國內，實獲值管理系統於實務的應用及相關的研究在近幾年也十分蓬勃發展。 在實獲值管理系統發展成熟的同時，建立一個在專案執行過程中，定期監控專案執行的績效與風險的機制，並以量化的值作為回報，將使得專案管理方法更加完整，於實務上也能夠有更佳的應用。因此，本研究將引進金融機構所採用的風險值(Value at Risk, VAR)，將風險以統計分佈、信賴水準與臨界值等概念，量化專案成本在執行過程中可能遭遇之風險，建立一套專案執行過程中定期監控的機制－預算風險值模型。

Generally, project risk management focuses on the ex ante works - risk identification, risk analysis and risk response, expecting to reduce the possibility of facing severe problems caused by risk factors. However, there are still a lot of risk factors that are unexpectable. In order to set up a complete risk management strategy, it is important to know how to quantify the risk. In project management technology, Earned Value Management System (EVMS) is considered one of the best methods in many countries. Recently, research and application in EVMS has become more and more popular. As EVMS being well developed, it would be more complete and more applicable for project management if there is a mechanism that monitors project risk and performance regularly, and reports the quantified value. Therefore, this study will establish a regular monitoring mechanism – Budget at Risk Model. The concept of project cost risk quantification comes from Value at Risk, using statistical distributions, confidence level and critical value.