風險值於實獲值管理之應用─工期風險值模型

Abstract

專案生命週期中，各階段皆存在著許多風險要素，每個執行過程的風險要素 都可能延生出不同的風險結果，將增加專案時程的不確定性，並造成作業完成時 間或總完工工期的負面影響，使實際完工工期的變異程度提高。在考慮可能發生 所有風險的情況下，必頇使用可涵蓋整體環境因素，並能隨著施工時間即時更新 的風險預測工具。 本研究主旨為，利用實獲值管理方法對時程進行績效評估，再融合目前實務 上常用來評估損失風險的理論概念─風險值(Value At Risk, VAR)，利用將專案完工工期之預測加入風險值信賴機率水準的觀念，使專案在執行過程中可能遭遇之風險，可真實的反應在預測完工工期上，以幫助專案管理者做更有效的管理。 確定模型後，將工期風險值模型(SAR)應用在實務上，對案例結果進行分析，並針對工期風險值(SAR)與實獲值方法(Earned Value Management, EVM)預測完工工期之差異，以及工期風險值與實際剩餘完工工期之差異進行比較討論。

There are many risk factors at each stage in project’s life cycle, each execution factors are likely to give many risks results and increase the uncertainty of this project,also the job achieve time or total finalization may have the negative effect, the effects can cause the huge odds for actual completion. Consider all risks must use to cover the whole environmental factors and with the construction time to update the risk prediction tool that may occur in the case. The study of this project, using the earned value management methods for performance evaluation - Value At Risk, VAR, forecast the project completion schedule by adding value at risk concept of the probability level, the project may confront risks to this forecast in real reaction completed on schedule, to help project managers to more effective management. After ascertaining the model, the schedule at risk used in practice to respond the results of the analysis in the case, and the different between the schedule at risk and the Earned Value Management forecast completion schedule, besides, schedule at risk and the actual completion of the remaining duration to compare the differences discussed.