應用灰預測方法評估專案完工成本

Abstract

專案管理的主要概念早在十九世紀末就已經開始發展，至1960年代早期企業以及其他的組織已開始注意到專案的相關整理工作所帶來的優點。專案的範圍、時間及成本是專案管理上隨時應處理之三大重點，這些重點構成了專案之「三重限制」條件。不論何種契約型態之專案，普遍都是以能夠在滿足此三重限制下順利完成專案為管理目標，即專案管理的目的就是要確保企業組織在預定的時間內，運用最少的資源達成最高品質的任務。專案管理可以適用在各個領域上，如：研發、製造、行銷等。不論專案的大小與性質，在專案管理當中最重要的兩個指標即是成本與時間，而本研究著重在成本這項指標，借由準確的預測專案之成本作即可控制該專案後續的預算。灰預測模型(Grey Model，GM)為一種只需要少量樣本即可建構預測模型的方法，滾動灰預測(Rolling Grey Model，RGM)為改良之灰預測模型，此模型比傳統GM具有更準確的預測能力。本研究以實獲值管理中重要的成本指標EAC為標準，利用RGM來預測專案完工之成本，不但能夠提早瞭解專案在各完成度時的成本資訊，也能夠準確地預測專案完工時所需要的實際成本。

The project management is mainly known as organizing work around the project to gaining the benefits. The developments in the concept of project management have occurred in the 19th century. Most of the enterprises and organizations have noticed the benefits of project management. The three most important elements of project management are time, cost and scope in the project management. The completion of project is the goal of project management in terms of these three elements is to forecast the total cost of completed project. The main objective of this study is to within budget limit. Grey model (GM) is a well-known forecasting method for limited observed data. In this study, the improved GM model, called Rolling Grey Model (RGM), is used to predict the total cost based on the index EAC in earned value management.