風險值於實獲值管理之應用- 預算風險值模型於公司各專案之應用

Abstract

專案生命週期中，各個作業時間點都會有風險存在，而風險的不確定性將會影響現金的流動，如果要順利完成專案，則必須要解決風險的問題。而風險的處理方法不外乎透過辨識、分析、評價和處置，如果能有效降低風險發生可能，則可以降低對於專案的負面影響。風險一旦發生了，往往都必須要由建設公司來承擔，身為一個專案管理者，必須在考慮所有風險的情況下，使用工具預測，而目前使用的實獲值管理系統(Earned Value Management System, EVMS)在結合風險值後，能夠評估較不精確的部分，為當前大量使用的評估工具並被許多國家所使用。

本研究主旨為，利用已經確定的預算風險值(Budget at Risk, BAR)模型，針對一公司各項專案的進度時間點進行分析，利用過去資料，選取一段時間，並結合實獲值管理(Earned Value Management, EVM)，將模型驗證在實際的公司案例上，針對模型的不足之處進行改善，並量化各項工項的總風險，作為一家公司之工程緊急預備金參考值。

During the project life cycle, there will have the presence of risk in each activity. If you want to complete the project, you need to solve the problem of risk. Use risk identification, risk analysis and risk response to reduse the risk happening and the negative impact for the project. The company will have to undertake the risk and use tools to predict risk. As a project manager, we use Earned Value Management System (EVMS) which combined with value at risk in the current. This tool used entensively by many countries to assess the less accurate part.

This study aims is using the Budget at Risk (BAR) model to analyze the projects of a company. Using past data, selecting a period of the time and combining with Earned Value Management (EVM) to quantify the all risks of the work items. Improving the inadequate of the model and as a reserve fund reference values.