先進環保車輛購買決策之研究-以台北市計程車業者為例

Abstract

先進環保車輛(advanced clean vehicles)的使用具有降低車輛燃油依存度與減少都市溫室氣體排放的效果，在眾多不同技術車輛中，選購對營業利潤最有利的車款，為公路運輸業者的首要目標。本研究使用實質選擇權理論(real option approach, ROA)來做車輛的購買評價，詳細考慮車輛營運的收入面與成本面變數，納入電動車的充電與搜尋(充電站)問題對營業的影響，並量化市場環境與政府政策因素的不確定性；此外，以投資組合理論(portfolio theory)來做業者多車輛的最適車種持有比例，解決業者整體營收與油價敏感度過高的情形；再者，以台北市計程車業者為範例分析對象，研究計程車電動化對台灣溫室氣體減量的情形。由結果顯示，油電混合車在目前市場條件下，即使政府不施行任何補助，也已經和汽油車具有競爭優勢，未來油價高漲或課徵碳稅後更是有利；電動車部分，目前條件會對業者造成虧損，若要促進業者選購電動車，收入面的提升相對於成本面的降低有較顯著的功效，亦顯示電動車最佳購買時點在電池成本介於570 到590 時。減碳部分，油電混合車功效雖然沒有電動車好，但短期推動較易，可做為政府近期推動目標，此外，若要使用電動車達成零排放，要配合乾淨能源發電，不然會造成反效果，排放更多CO2。投資組合部分，驗證結果可得出在相同利潤下整體風險較低的車種持有比例，幫助業者事先調整營運車輛的組成，因應未來燃料價格的波動。

The adoption of advanced clean vehicles can reduce oil dependency and decrease greenhouse gas effects in the city. The service providers of road transportation may aim to choose the most profitable one from alternative-technology vehicles. The study applies real option theory to investigate purchase decision on advanced clean vehicles, by considering variables of both revenue and cost sides, as well as the electric- vehicle battery charging problems. The paper also investigates and quantifies the influences due to the uncertainty of oil price, market environment and government policy. Applying the portfolio analysis, the study further investigates the optimal composition of various technology vehicles that can yield the maximum profit while lowering the risk associated with the highly fluctuated oil price for service providers. A case study of taxi industry in Taipei is used to demonstrate the application of the model and analyze the effect of greenhouse gas reduction after implementing taxi electrification. The result shows that even without government subsidies, the hybrid vehicles already have competitive advantages. On the other hand, regarding taxi vehicles, individual taxi drivers may suffer a loss when use electric cars in the current market conditions. To enhance the usage of electric vehicles by taxi drivers or company, strategies by income increase is more remarkable than those by cost down. The results also show that the battery cost being down to 570 to 590 is the optimal adoption time of electric vehicles. Even though carbon reduction performance of hybrid vehicles is less obvious than electric ones, it is easier for government to promote at current condition. In addition, we must use clean energy generation if we use electric vehicles to achieve zero-emission, otherwise, it will emit more carbon dioxide. The results confirm that we can decide the option vehicle hold ratio with the lower portfolio risk and higher profit for taxi companies by portfolio analysis, and it can help adjust the composition of commercial vehicles to solve the problem of fuel price volatility in the future.