2008年金融海嘯暨市場泡沫化之治理成因與影響分析

Abstract

本研究歸納2008年金融危機形成因素之研究與市場現象，提出不同的檢驗角度，認為金融危機前市場的泡沫化主要源於美國政府對國內經濟與金融之治理不良；該因素表現在貨幣政策、金融自由化及金融監理鬆懈所帶來的影響，從而導致國內房地產市場、信用市場以及資產證券化商品市場之泡沫化；本研究進而提出「貨幣政策、金融政策與監督→市場泡沫」之金融危機模型，並運用SEM分析方法進行實證分析，得出不良貨幣政策及金融監督鬆懈對於市場泡沫化具有催化效果之結論。本文建議日後政府為維持金融穩定，應注重總體經濟與金融監管政策之結合與一致性。

This paper claims that the root of the financial crisis in 2008 is the negligent governance from US government, which included poor monetary policy and the effect of financial liberalization and negligent supervisory, jointly resulted in the bubble and burst in related market. We further suggest a model of “financial policy and supervisory, monetary policy causing the market bubble” and makes use of the SEM analysis to obtain the conclusion that poor monetary policy, financial regulation negligence with loose financial supervisory will result in financial market bubble and harmful financial crisis. Suggestion is also provided that the government shall take notice on coordination and consistence of the economic policy and financial governance.